Macro worldview (3.0.1 - Thursday July 2 refresh integrating the June 18 to July 2 window on the post-FOMC hawkish-Warsh regime baseline - the Iran-Israel de-escalation deepened (June 22 OFAC General License X uncapping Iranian crude, June 29 US-Iran halt-hostilities) and WTI collapsed further to below $69 (lowest since Feb 27, Brent -20% on the month) with energy equities unwinding the premium; May PCE core ticked to 3.4% and Warsh reinforced the hawkish regime at Sintra (independence, price stability, no tolerance for above-2% inflation); equities recovered (SPY 745.76, QQQ 725.17), VIX collapsed to ~16.5 and the S&P posted its strongest quarter since 2020; gold sold off below $4,000 (low $3,943) before bouncing to ~$4,068. PATCH: no thesis added, retired, or invalidated)

3.0.1 refresh, taken Thursday July 2 ~8:45 AM ET - the window runs from the June 18 post-FOMC regime reframe (3.0.0) through the June 25 May-PCE print, the June 22-29 de-escalation sequence, and the June 30 quarter-end into the July 2 pre-market (the June jobs report was released at 8:30 AM ET, minutes before this snapshot; its actual print had not yet propagated and is left for 3.0.2). The bump is a PATCH: 3.0.0 already did the regime reframe (retiring Fed leadership transition policy uncertainty and adding Hawkish Warsh regime and higher-for-longer), so no thesis is added, retired, or invalidated here - the window continued both trends 3.0.0 identified. Net moves: Persistent energy premium -0.05 to 0.45 (wider), Gold structural debasement bid -0.03 to 0.85 (wider), Hawkish Warsh regime and higher-for-longer +0.04 to 0.76 (tighter), Equity melt-up versus building recession risk +0.02 to 0.78, Stagflation risk and Fed independence stress -0.01 to 0.87, Iran war rearmament cycle -0.01 to 0.83, and a hold on AI capex sustained but with China decoupling tail risk at 0.88 (wider band).

The energy de-escalation deepens. Persistent energy premium steps 0.50 to 0.45 and the band widens to 0.13. Building on the June-17 ceasefire 3.0.0 already priced, the window added the June 22 OFAC General License X uncapping Iranian crude and the June 29 halt-hostilities agreement, driving WTI below $69 (lowest since February 27), Brent -20% on the month, and energy equities unwinding the premium. The sustained-sub-threshold-after-durable-reopening invalidation leg is genuinely in motion now - but it is not fully fired: the reopening is fragile, with a June 22 Iranian re-closure claim and relapse, and 30 sustained days have not elapsed.

The hawkish-Warsh regime gets its first confirmation window. Hawkish Warsh regime and higher-for-longer steps 0.72 to 0.76 and the band tightens to 0.06. At Sintra on July 1 Warsh emphasized Fed independence, rebuffed presidential calls for cuts, and pledged to deliver price stability, warning against tolerance of above-2% inflation - exactly the regime 3.0.0 called. Markets now price ~66% odds of a December hike embedded in the Fed's own dots, and May PCE core ticked up to 3.4% YoY validates the higher-for-longer read. The thesis strengthens in its first full window.

Stagflation holds; the energy accelerant reverses. Stagflation risk and Fed independence stress steps 0.88 to 0.87 and the band widens to 0.05. Core PCE at 3.4% keeps the inflation pillar high, but the ~25% oil collapse turns the near-term energy-passthrough tailwind into a headwind and the 10Y eased to ~4.4% despite the hawkish Fed (the strong dollar did the work). Growth stays solid (Q1 GDP revised to +2.1%, ISM manufacturing and services in expansion), so the stag leg is still dormant, and the higher-for-longer rate story now lives largely in the separate Hawkish Warsh regime and higher-for-longer thesis. Small down, wider band.

Gold sells off but the structural bid holds. Gold structural debasement bid steps 0.88 to 0.85 and the band widens to 0.06. Gold broke below $4,000 for the first time since November 2025 (low $3,943) on the hawkish repricing and a firm dollar, GLD 370.60 / GDX 75.07, before bouncing to ~$4,068. Goldman trimmed its year-end target to $4,900. The structural leg is intact - the WGC July 1 Mid-Year Outlook centers H2 fair value near $4,100 with central banks consistent net buyers - so the mean trim is modest and the band widens on the yield/dollar sensitivity.

AI demand holds while the China tail re-arms. AI capex sustained but with China decoupling tail risk holds at 0.88 with the band widening to 0.06. Demand durability persisted (hyperscaler capex, Oracle's $638B RPO) while the tail re-armed: China added 10 US firms to its export-control list on June 22 in retaliation for the Pentagon's Chinese-military-companies additions, out of the pre-June detente. A July 1 semis selloff (Micron -10.6%, AMD -6.9%, NVDA ~16% off its record) de-rated positioning even as demand held. Mean held, band widened on the re-armed tail.

Equities recover; the vol scare fades. Equity melt-up versus building recession risk steps 0.76 to 0.78. The tape recovered - SPY 745.76 and QQQ 725.17, the S&P's strongest quarter since 2020 - and the VIX collapsed to ~16.5, leaving the vol-expansion leg far away. Earnings support the melt-up (Q2 EPS growth estimated +23.1%) and the recession leg stays quiet (Q1 GDP +2.1%), though softer ADP payrolls (+98k) and the hawkish-Fed hike path are counterweights.

Rearmament holds as the war cools. Iran war rearmament cycle steps 0.84 to 0.83. The June 29 halt-hostilities agreement eased the acute conflict, but the structural procurement cycle firmed (the primes held firm - LMT 521.82, RTX 191.78, NOC 519.95); a fragile 60-day ceasefire is not the implemented durable peace the invalidation requires. Only -0.01.

Catalyst calendar. The June jobs report (released 8:30 AM ET July 2, consensus ~100-115k) is the immediate read; its confirmed print lands in 3.0.2. June CPI on July 14 is the next inflation tell against a now-reversing energy base. Whether the fragile Iran ceasefire holds through its 60-day window is the swing factor for Persistent energy premium. Q2 earnings begin mid-July; the July 28-29 FOMC is the next test of the Hawkish Warsh regime and higher-for-longer read.