Economic Data Evidence

The VIX collapsed from 22.22 on June 10 to ~16.5 by month-end (16.45 June 30, 16.59 July 1), well below the >25 vol-expansion trigger, as the ceasefire removed the war tail and equities steadied.

Provenance — node opacity = source trust
Evidence Strength
Strong
Evidence Observed At
Jul 1, 2026 · 8:00 PM UTC
Citation
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/series/VIXCLS
Citation Source
fed-press
Indicator
VIX Close
Indicator Value
16.59
Indicator Period
July 1 2026