Market Data Evidence

The 10-year Treasury yield eased to ~4.38% by June 26 and ~4.44% into month-end, down from ~4.54% on June 10 despite the hawkish dot plot - the dollar (DXY above 100 for the first time since May 2025) did the hawkish work while long yields fell on the oil collapse and easing energy passthrough.

Provenance — node opacity = source trust
Evidence Strength
Strong
Evidence Observed At
Jun 26, 2026 · 8:00 PM UTC
Citation
https://www.federalreserve.gov/releases/h15/
Citation Source
fed-press
Market Metric
Close Price
Observed Value
4.38