Economic Data Evidence

May PCE, released June 25, showed headline inflation at 4.1% YoY (highest since April 2023, +0.4% m/m) and core PCE at 3.4% YoY (highest since October 2023, +0.3% m/m) - a tick above the 3.3% consensus and up from the prior 3.3% core, confirming sticky above-target core still far from the <2.5%-for-3-months invalidation leg.

Provenance — node opacity = source trust
Evidence Strength
Strong
Evidence Observed At
Jun 25, 2026 · 12:30 PM UTC
Citation
https://www.cnbc.com/2026/06/25/pce-inflation-report-may-2026-.html
Citation Source
bea-press
Indicator
Core PCE YoY
Indicator Value
3.4
Indicator Period
May 2026