AI capex sustained but with China decoupling tail risk
Equity melt-up versus building recession risk
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Fed leadership transition policy uncertainty
Gold structural debasement bid
Hawkish Warsh regime and higher-for-longer
Iran war rearmament cycle
Macro worldview (3.0.1 - Thursday July 2 refresh integrating the June 18 to July 2 window on the post-FOMC hawkish-Warsh regime baseline - the Iran-Israel de-escalation deepened (June 22 OFAC General License X uncapping Iranian crude, June 29 US-Iran halt-hostilities) and WTI collapsed further to below $69 (lowest since Feb 27, Brent -20% on the month) with energy equities unwinding the premium; May PCE core ticked to 3.4% and Warsh reinforced the hawkish regime at Sintra (independence, price stability, no tolerance for above-2% inflation); equities recovered (SPY 745.76, QQQ 725.17), VIX collapsed to ~16.5 and the S&P posted its strongest quarter since 2020; gold sold off below $4,000 (low $3,943) before bouncing to ~$4,068. PATCH: no thesis added, retired, or invalidated)
Persistent energy premium
Stagflation risk and Fed independence stress