Macro worldview (2.1.1 - Sunday-morning weekend integration)

Sunday-morning 2.1.1 refresh, ~14.5 hours after 2.1.0 - the operational window covers Saturday-evening through Sunday-noon weekend developments. US cash markets are closed; CME e-mini futures do not open until Sun May 17 22:00 UTC (~5 hours from observedAt). No Friday-close market data has moved.

Three weekend developments materially advance the energy and geopolitics theses; one fourth is narrative-only.

• Iran formalizes the Hormuz toll mechanism. Saturday May 16, Iranian parliament National Security Committee chair Ebrahim Azizi announced Tehran has designed a "professional mechanism" for managing Hormuz shipping movement via the new Persian Gulf Strait Authority (PGSA). Vessels submit ownership / insurance / cargo forms; tolls (reportedly up to $2M, settled in Chinese yuan) determined by vessel size and cargo; US-linked "Freedom Project" vessels are excluded outright. This is a STRUCTURAL formalization of the Hormuz disruption regime — directly procedurally adverse to the durable-reopening leg of the Persistent energy premium invalidation. Moves persistent- energy-shock confidence to 0.71 ± 0.06 (from 0.68 ± 0.07); tightens the band because the offsetting Trump 20-year / Chinese-buyer-relief signals are now bracketed against an institutional Iranian counter-fact rather than absent contrary evidence.
• Trump-UAE Kharg Island directive. Saturday May 16 reporting indicates the Trump administration instructed the UAE to seize Iran's Kharg Island — Iran's primary oil-export hub and the candidate the NYT Friday strike-prep piece had listed among operational options. The directive crosses from "preparations intensifying" (Friday's framing) to "active asks of regional partners." Structurally supportive of Iran war rearmament cycle — sustains the multi-year procurement framing without requiring the kinetic option to actually execute. Moves iran-war- rearmament confidence to 0.83 ± 0.05 (from 0.82 ± 0.05); small mean step, width held.
• Iran says it's ready to repel new US attack. Sunday May 17 Iranian military statement reaffirms readiness for renewed strikes; peace talks confirmed stalled at Tehran's five preconditions (sanctions lift, war end on all fronts, blockade lift, asset unfreezing, war compensation). Reinforces the iran-war-rearmament thesis on the demand side without itself being a step-change event.
• Lebanon-Israel ceasefire extended 45 days (narrative-only, no confidence movement). Friday May 15 State Department announcement extended the Israel-Lebanon ceasefire by 45 days with follow-on talks scheduled June 2-3. Modest regional de- escalation but the Iran-specific track remains stalled — does not bend the multi-year procurement cycle or the structural Hormuz disruption math, so no thesis-level move.

Equity-melt-up edged down marginally. Aggregate weekend escalation (Kharg directive + Iran-ready + Hormuz toll formalization) adds incremental pressure to the recession-risk leg entering Sunday futures open. Moves equity-melt-up confidence to 0.70 ± 0.08 (from 0.71 ± 0.08) — a single-tick down, well inside the band, with the three binary tells Wed May 20 - Thu May 21 (FOMC minutes, NVDA print, Walmart Q1) still the operative move-generators. Held the stdDev — the post-print rerating remains the dominant uncertainty.

Four theses held. Stagflation risk and Fed independence stress at Beta(33, 7.2), 0.82 ± 0.04 — no new CPI / PPI / PCE / wage data in the window. Gold structural debasement bid at Beta(42, 7.5), 0.85 ± 0.05 — Friday rate move remains the operative tactical headwind; structural supports (LBMA Q1 record, 244t CB buying, JPM/UBS/Citi targets) intact and now mildly augmented by weekend Hormuz-escalation safe-haven backdrop, but the magnitude is well inside the band width. AI capex sustained but with China decoupling tail risk at Beta(64, 10.4), 0.86 ± 0.04 — NVDA Wed print is the next confidence move. Fed leadership transition policy uncertainty at Beta(8, 8), 0.50 ± 0.12 — no Warsh-as-chair public statement yet over the weekend; Sunday market commentary (Motley Fool "blow up the playbook" framing) is positioning chatter, not a new official datapoint.

Algemeiner citation correction. The 2.1.0 carry-forward of ev-algemeiner-iran-strike-options-may16 had its citationSource erroneously set to src.nyt (a typo — the citation URL pointed to algemeiner.com). 2.1.1 corrects this to src.algemeiner, newly available in sources@1.1.0 along with Al Jazeera (added to support the Hormuz-toll, Kharg-directive, and Iran-ready citations).

Catalyst calendar from here (carried forward, unchanged). Sun May 17 22:00 UTC CME e-mini futures open. Wed May 20 2 PM ET April 29 FOMC minutes. Wed May 20 5 PM ET NVDA Q1 FY2027. Thu May 21 pre-open Walmart Q1 FY2027. Thu May 28 8:30 AM ET April PCE — formal stagflation-thesis invalidation indicator. June 16- 17 first Warsh-as-chair FOMC under the inherited inflation backdrop.