Stagflation risk and Fed independence stress
What changed
The headline signal — how confidence moved from the previous snapshot, and why.
Held at 2.1.0 levels (0.82 ± 0.04). No new CPI / PPI / PCE / wage data in the 14.5-hour window. Beta(33, 7.2) parameterization continues to encode ~40 effective independent observations - the Bayesian frame makes the evidence weight explicit. April PCE on May 28 is the next primary move, then June 16-17 FOMC.
The thesis
The claim and where confidence stands now.
April CPI on May 12 fired the energy-passthrough binary tell directly: headline 3.8% YoY (highest since May 2023), core 2.8% YoY. April PPI on May 13 ran hotter than CPI - headline +1.4% m/m / +6.0% YoY, core +1.0% m/m / +5.2% YoY (highest in three years). April import prices on May 14 added +1.9% m/m / +4.2% YoY (largest YoY since October 2022) with imported fuel +16.3% m/m. Friday May 15 delivered the sharpest single-session rate-path repricing of the cycle: oil +4.5% (WTI to $106, weekly +11%), the 10Y to 4.59% (up ~13bps in one day, fresh ~1-year high, biggest weekly yield jump since April 2025), and CME FedWatch hike-by-December odds to ~56% from ~36% Thursday and ~16% a week earlier - a 20pp single-day move. The bond-market rout was global, with longer-dated yields most affected and 30Y to the cusp of the 2023 peak. Powell exited chair Friday with conciliatory final remarks; Warsh now chair, first public statement still ahead. Calendar: April 29 FOMC minutes Wednesday May 20 2 PM ET, Walmart Q1 FY2027 Thursday May 21 pre-open, April PCE the formal invalidation indicator on May 28.
Drivers
The underlying macro forces this thesis expresses - the loading mean is how much each force drives the thesis, the stddev our confidence in the mapping.
Supporting evidence
Typed, citation-backed observations across time, grouped by strength. Hover a point for the claim.
What would invalidate this
The machine-evaluable conditions that would falsify the thesis.