Fed leadership transition policy uncertainty

Held at 2.1.0 levels (0.50 ± 0.12). Sunday weekend market commentary on Warsh's prospective playbook is positioning chatter, not a new Warsh-as-chair datapoint. The substantive transition question remains gated by (a) the first Warsh-as-chair public statements and (b) the June 16-17 FOMC under the inherited 10Y / hot-CPI backdrop. Beta(8, 8) deliberately encodes low effective n (~16) - the snapshot's posterior on this thesis is appropriately diffuse.

Powell completed his Fed chair-term exit Friday May 15 2026 with conciliatory final remarks: advised Warsh to "stay out of elected politics" and pledged to keep a low profile as a governor through his Board term to 2028. Senate had confirmed Warsh as Federal Reserve Chair 54-45 on Wednesday May 13 - the narrowest modern-era margin since the current approval process was put in place in 1977; Fetterman (D-PA) was the only Democratic crossover. The 13-11 party-line Banking Committee advance, the prior 51-45 governor confirmation, and the 54-45 chair confirmation all stand as historically partisan Fed-Chair-track outcomes. Warsh confirmation-hearing framing - "won't be sock puppet" and "room to cut without inflation" - introduces a dovish-tilt risk to the dollar / long-duration cross. Friday May 15 delivered the sharpest rate-path repricing of the cycle: 10Y to 4.59% (fresh ~1-year high; biggest weekly jump since April 2025), CME FedWatch hike-by-December to ~56% from ~36% Thursday - sharpening the contradiction between Warsh's "room to cut" framing and the inherited backdrop (CPI 3.8%, PPI +6.0% YoY, imports +4.2% YoY, oil $106). No Warsh-as-chair public statement yet over the weekend; substantive policy-content question opens at the June 16-17 FOMC.