Iran war rearmament cycle

Moved from 2.1.0 0.82 ± 0.05 to 0.83 ± 0.05 - small mean step on the Kharg-Island UAE directive and Iran-ready statement; width held because the structural conviction (multi-year procurement cycles) is the same and the new evidence is incremental rather than regime-changing. Beta(25, 5.1) encodes ~30 effective observations - up from ~28 reflecting two weekend additions. The presidential unit citation already incorporated at 2.1.0; the new weekend evidence on the demand-side (Kharg directive, Iran-ready) is the marginal step.

The US-Iran war that began Feb 28 2026 (Operation Epic Fury) triggered a multi-year defense spending cycle that benefits prime contractors with missile and missile-defense exposure regardless of diplomatic-track outcomes. The Trump-Xi summit concluded Friday May 15 without any concrete Iran de-escalation deliverable; the NYT reported May 15 that the US and Israel are intensifying preparations for renewed strikes on Iran, with operational options including commando extraction of nuclear material and seizure of Kharg Island. Saturday May 16 the Trump administration directly instructed the UAE to seize Kharg Island - crossing from "preparations intensifying" to active asks of regional partners. Sunday May 17 Iranian military reaffirms readiness to repel renewed US attack; peace talks confirmed stalled at Tehran's five preconditions. Depleted munitions stockpiles (438 Iranian ballistic missiles, 2,012 drones, 19 cruise missiles fired at UAE through April 1) and Golden Dome ($185B) are committed multi-year programs that survive any near-term deal scenario. Defense primes were mixed on the Friday chip-led tape rotation: LMT 516.01 (-0.85%), RTX 171.18 (-2.56%), NOC 540.69 (-1.45%). Saturday May 16 added formal institutional recognition of the kinetic phase via the USS Gerald R. Ford Carrier Strike Group's Presidential Unit Citation for Operation Epic Fury. Daily rotation does not bend the multi-year procurement cycle.