The headline signal — how confidence moved from the previous snapshot, and why.
First tracked in this version
Moved from 2.1.0 0.68 ± 0.07 to 0.71 ± 0.06. The Saturday May 16 Hormuz toll-mechanism formalization is a STRUCTURAL fact - Iran is institutionalizing the disruption regime, which procedurally advances the difficulty of the durable-reopening leg of the SequencedCondition. Band tightens (0.07 -> 0.06) because the offsetting diplomatic signals (Trump 20-year framing, Chinese-buyer relief consideration) are now bracketed against a concrete Iranian counter-fact rather than absent contrary evidence. Beta(17, 7) encodes ~24 effective observations - up from ~20 reflecting two weekend structural additions.
The thesis
The claim and where confidence stands now.
Beta(17, 7) · 95% CI [0.59–0.83]
Oil prices remain structurally elevated as long as the Strait of Hormuz reopening sequence is incomplete and Iranian retaliation risk is intact. The IEA May 2026 Oil Market Report forecasts a 1.78 mb/d 2026 supply deficit (sharp reversal from prior expected surplus), with world supply falling 3.9 mb/d in 2026 on assumed gradual Hormuz resumption from June; output from Hormuz-affected Gulf countries is 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels and the agency warns the market stays severely undersupplied through Q3 2026 even if Middle East fighting ends by early June. UBS separately expects global inventories to approach all-time lows by end-May. Friday May 15 delivered direct market repricing: WTI $106 (+4.5% on day, +11% on the week), Brent $106.89, XLE 59.44 (+2.36%), XOM 157.92 (+3.36%), CVX 191.10 (+2.39%). Saturday May 16 added the structural-formalization step: Iranian parliament's National Security Committee chair Ebrahim Azizi announced Tehran's new Persian Gulf Strait Authority will run a "professional mechanism" for Hormuz shipping movement, with transit tolls (up to ~$2M, Chinese-yuan settled, US "Freedom Project" vessels excluded). This is institutional procurement of the disruption regime - the procedural opposite of the durable-reopening leg of the SequencedCondition invalidation. Trump's Friday Air Force One 20-year nuclear-suspension framing and possible Chinese-buyer sanction relief remain in play as offsetting diplomatic signals but no longer face an absent counterparty - they face an Iran institutionalizing the chokepoint.
Drivers
The underlying macro forces this thesis expresses - the loading mean is how much each force drives the thesis, the stddev our confidence in the mapping.
Supporting evidence
Typed, citation-backed observations across time, grouped by strength. Hover a point for the claim.
What would invalidate this
The machine-evaluable conditions that would falsify the thesis.