Stepped 0.85 to 0.86 (from 2.2.3) as the named mid-June CPI tell fired on the headline: May CPI printed 4.2% YoY, the highest since April 2023, with energy contributing over 60% of the monthly rise and gasoline +40.5% YoY - the energy-passthrough channel the thesis is built on, now visible in the index itself - while the 10Y held ~4.54% and a December hike became essentially fully priced. The move is only +0.01 because the print cut both ways again: a hot energy-driven headline against a below-consensus 0.2% m/m core (2.9% YoY), and the labor market remains the opposite of the growth-weakening "stag" leg. Width held at 0.04 - the passthrough corroboration roughly offsets the soft-core caveat. Beta(53, 8.6) ~62 effective observations. The horizon is anchored on the monthly PCE cadence: the <2.5%-for-3-months invalidation leg needs at least a quarter to even begin scoring.

April CPI on May 12 fired the energy-passthrough binary tell directly: headline 3.8% YoY (highest since May 2023), core 2.8% YoY. April PPI on May 13 ran hotter than CPI - headline +1.4% m/m / +6.0% YoY, core +1.0% m/m / +5.2% YoY (highest in three years). April import prices on May 14 added +1.9% m/m / +4.2% YoY (largest YoY since October 2022) with imported fuel +16.3% m/m. Friday May 15 delivered the sharpest single-session rate-path repricing of the cycle: oil +4.5% (WTI to $106, weekly +11%), the 10Y to 4.59% (up ~13bps in one day, fresh ~1-year high, biggest weekly yield jump since April 2025), and CME FedWatch hike-by-December odds to ~56% from ~36% Thursday and ~16% a week earlier - a 20pp single-day move. Monday May 18 cash session closed 10Y at 4.601% (vs 4.59% Friday) on the strike-cancellation tactical pullback; Tuesday May 19 closed 10Y at 4.62% (intraday high 4.67%, "Treasurys take off"), the rate-path repricing reasserting after the Friday spike. Global yields still at multi-year highs (German bund 15-year high, JGB 10Y 29-year high). Calendar: April 29 FOMC minutes Wednesday May 20 2 PM ET, Walmart Q1 FY2027 Thursday May 21 pre-open with tariff-passthrough lens, April PCE the formal invalidation indicator on May 28. Update May 20: the April 29 FOMC minutes released Wednesday read hawkish - officials debating hikes on persistent above-target inflation - and FedWatch hike-by-December odds rose to ~63%, fresh corroboration of the higher-for-longer read even as Wednesday's risk-on session eased yields intraday. Update May 21: Walmart's Q1 FY2027 print delivered a direct tariff-passthrough signal - the CFO warned higher retail prices may hit shelves in coming months - and Treasury yields rebounded Thursday, reversing Wednesday's intraday easing. Update May 22: a tactical disinflation pulse - the 10Y eased back toward ~4.57% Friday, crude slipped back below $100, and December-hike odds came off their post-minutes peak on the revived US-Iran peace optimism - though no new CPI / PPI / PCE print landed and April PCE on May 28 remains the formal invalidation indicator. Update May 25: a quiet Memorial Day weekend added no new inflation print, and weekend energy coverage reinforced structurally elevated oil (Brent ~85% higher YTD with analyst calls for crude to stay high into 2027) - a passthrough tailwind that roughly offsets the Friday tactical-disinflation pulse, leaving the higher-for-longer read intact ahead of the May 28 PCE. Update May 26: a pre-market read after the Memorial Day holiday added no new inflation print - the 10Y eased to ~4.51% extending the Friday disinflation pulse, while the fresh US strikes on Iran kept a passthrough-risk offset in place - leaving the higher-for-longer read intact into the May 28 PCE. Update May 27: the first post-holiday cash close added no new inflation print - the 10Y eased further to ~4.48% Wednesday, its lowest in nearly two weeks, while CME FedWatch hike-by-December odds firmed to ~70% (with ~80% odds of a June/July hold) kept the higher-for-longer read intact ahead of the May 28 PCE. Update May 28: the Wednesday cash close added no new inflation print - the 10Y held near the ~4.48% morning level into the close, the higher-for-longer core intact - and crude tumbled ~5.5% to $88.68 on Rubio's "every chance to succeed" framing, a fresh disinflation tactical pulse; the April PCE print at 8:30 AM ET (consensus 3.8% headline / 3.3% core) is the operative tell nine minutes after observedAt. Update May 29: the print landed in line - headline 3.8% / core 3.3% YoY, both matching consensus, with the monthly pace softening to +0.4% / +0.2% m/m - confirming sticky above-target core without an upside surprise, and the 10Y eased to 4.46% as energy pared its rebound and the interim Iran deal limited the inflation outlook; the core 3.3% remains far from the <2.5%-for-3-months invalidation leg. Update June 1: no new inflation print landed over the Friday-to-Monday window - the higher-for-longer 3.3% core stands - while markets firmed June-hold pricing to ~99.4% and the weekend stall of the US-Iran memorandum (talks formally stalled, blockade enforcement continuing) keeps the energy-passthrough risk two-sided; the rate-path question defers entirely to the June 16-17 FOMC. Update June 2: fresh inflation-persistence corroboration on three fronts - ISM May prices paid printed 82.1, the second-highest reading since April 2022, with 66.3% of manufacturers reporting higher prices alongside a 54.0 headline PMI, the fastest factory expansion since May 2022 - growth holding up while prices refuse to yield; April JOLTS openings rose to 7.6M (labor demand still solid); and the energy-passthrough risk violently re-armed as Iran stopped negotiations and vowed to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and WTI spiked 6%+ above $92 before Trump's truce-and-rapid-pace intervention pared the move. The 10Y rose to ~4.47% Monday on the escalation; June-hold pricing stands at ~98.4%, deferring the rate-path question to the June 16-17 FOMC. Update June 3: a quiet inflation window - no new print landed - while the 10Y eased to ~4.43% Tuesday, its lowest in roughly three weeks, and the energy-passthrough risk stayed two-sided as the US-Iran memorandum sits pending Trump's signature with Tehran yet to respond to his edits while WTI held above $93. The ISM Services PMI (prices-paid lens) lands Wednesday 10 AM ET and the May jobs report Friday - the next inflation reads ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC. Update June 4: the ISM Services print landed hot - the May prices-paid index rose to 71.3%, its highest since August 2022, with all 18 industries reporting higher prices and petroleum newly added to the up-list, a second prices survey (after the 82.1 manufacturing reading) confirming sticky and broadening input costs while growth holds (Services PMI 54.5). Crude held above $95 after Iranian missile strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain kept the energy-passthrough tail live, with Tehran reporting "no progress" on the deal; the May jobs report Friday is the unemployment leg. Update June 5: the May jobs report ran HOT - nonfarm payrolls +172k vs ~80k consensus, unemployment steady 4.3%, prior months revised up +93k - firing no invalidation leg (core PCE 3.3% far from <2.5%; a resilient labor market, not the sub-trend-growth pairing) while pushing the rate-path pillar harder: the 10Y jumped to 4.55% and hike-by-December odds to ~70%. Update June 11: the mid-June CPI tell landed HOT on the headline - May CPI rose 0.5% m/m to 4.2% YoY, the highest since April 2023, with energy contributing over 60% of the monthly increase and gasoline +7% m/m / +40.5% YoY - the energy-passthrough channel printing directly into the index - while core CPI rose a below-consensus 0.2% m/m to 2.9% YoY, hot headline against a still-contained core. The 10Y climbed to ~4.54% Wednesday (headline CPI now nearly matches the 10Y - long yields are barely positive in real terms) and futures price a ~98% June-17 hold with a 25bp hike by December essentially fully priced. The war's re-escalation to direct Iran-Israel exchanges re-armed the passthrough risk (WTI back toward $91, Brent ~$93). Core 2.9% CPI / 3.3% PCE remains far from the <2.5%-for-3-months invalidation leg; the June 16-17 FOMC and month-end May PCE are the next reads.