Market Data Evidence

CME FedWatch hike-by-December odds firmed to ~70% as of May 26, up from the ~63% post-minutes level, with markets pricing more than ~80% odds the FOMC leaves rates unchanged at the June and July meetings - the higher-for-longer repricing intact even as the 10Y eased tactically.

Provenance — node opacity = source trust
Evidence Strength
Moderate
Evidence Observed At
May 26, 2026 · 8:00 PM UTC
Citation
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Citation Source
cnbc
Market Metric
Rate Path Expectations
Observed Value
0.7