After the hot May jobs report and the 4.2% May CPI, CME FedWatch pricing implies roughly a 98% probability the Fed holds the 3.50-3.75% target range at the June 16-17 meeting, while futures now price a 25-basis-point HIKE by December as essentially fully priced (hike-by-October odds were ~63% before the CPI and firmed after it). The 2026 rate-cut bets are gone from market pricing.