Stepped 0.78 to 0.75 and widened 0.06 to 0.07 (from 2.2.3). Three of four sessions closed lower, Wednesday near session lows (S&P -1.62% to 7,266.99, Dow -900), and VIX closed at 22.22 after topping 23 intraday - realized volatility is now building toward the >25 vol-expansion leg, which is the thesis's bearish resolution. The melt-up leg is long gone; the recession leg stays quiet (hot labor market, 19th expansion month); so the window resolves probability AWAY from the constructive melt-up-without-recession reading the mean encodes, without any leg actually firing. The -0.03 is larger than 2.2.3's -0.02 because this window added BOTH a deeper price break and a war-regime repricing (the "long grind" framing); the band widens because Thursday's futures bounce shows the tape can still snap back on any de-escalation headline - the two-sidedness is at its widest since the thesis was authored. Beta(28, 9.4) ~37 effective observations. The horizon is tactical - the VIX-denominated legs can fire (either direction) within weeks, and the June 16-17 FOMC is inside the window.

The Monday cash session held up FAR better than the Monday-morning bearish framing implied. SPY closed 738.65 (-0.07% from Friday's 739.17), QQQ 705.88, Dow -0.34%, Nasdaq Composite -0.07%, VIX actually FELL to 18.43. The Tuesday cash session then closed lower for a THIRD consecutive day: SPX 7,353.61 (-0.67%), Nasdaq Composite 25,870.71 (-0.84%), SPY 733.73, QQQ 701.53; VIX closed 18.06 (+1.35%) - a volatility bid, reversing the morning's softening read. Wednesday pre-market futures have since recovered (ES +0.4%, NQ +0.8%, Dow +75 pts) ahead of the binary cluster, integrating the down days rather than cascading. The Friday tape (SPX 7,408.50 -1.24%, NVDA -4.4%, AMD -5.7%, INTC -8%) has not been re-tested. CME FedWatch hike-by-December holds the ~56% level. Q1 2026 earnings season closed at 84% beat rate, 27.7% blended EPS growth, blended net margin 13.4% (highest since FactSet began tracking in 2009). The invalidation grammar requires either a vol-expansion break (VIX > 25 with SPY breaking 50d MA for 5 trading days) or unimpeded melt-up confirmation (SPX > 7,300 with VIX < 15 for 5 trading days) - VIX at 18.06 sits squarely in the mid-zone (SPX 7,353 is above 7,300, but VIX is far from the <15 the melt-up-confirmation leg needs), neither has fired. Three binary tells land in the next ~30 hours Wed May 20 - Thu May 21: FOMC minutes (2 PM ET Wed), NVDA Q1 FY2027 (5 PM ET Wed), Walmart Q1 FY2027 (pre-open Thu, tariff-passthrough lens). Update May 20: the session rallied broadly - Nasdaq +1.54%, S&P +1.08%, Dow +1.31%, SPY 741.25 (+1.02%) - reversing the three down days, though the hawkish FOMC minutes and muted NVDA after-hours reaction temper the read into Thursday's Walmart print. Update May 21: the rally faded - Nasdaq 100 -0.6%, S&P 500 -0.3% into Thursday afternoon as yields rebounded and oil topped $100, the NVDA beat-and-raise was shrugged off, and Walmart fell ~7.6% on consumer-distress caution; the S&P is nearing overbought with breadth concentrated in mega-cap AI. Neither invalidation leg moved closer. Update May 22: the fade reversed - the Thursday cash session actually closed green (SPY 742.72 +0.20%, QQQ 714.51) and Friday stocks rebounded broadly to a fresh Dow record (S&P +0.55%, Nasdaq +0.53%, Russell 2000 +0.93%) on revived US-Iran peace hopes and easing yields; neither invalidation leg moved. Update May 25: the Friday cash closes confirmed the rebound - SPY 745.64 (+0.39%), QQQ 717.54 (+0.42%) - and over the holiday weekend (no Monday session) commentary framed the tape as a continued melt-up while flagging mega-cap-AI breadth concentration. Neither invalidation leg is closer: VIX is plan-restricted on the feed and nowhere near the <15 melt-up-confirmation leg, and there is no vol-expansion break. Update May 26: risk-on into the post-holiday reopen - S&P 500 futures +0.78%, Nasdaq-100 +1.14%, Dow futures +371 points on US-Iran deal optimism, extending the Friday Dow-record rebound - though the fresh US strikes on Iran are a two-sided risk; these are futures, not a close, and neither invalidation leg moved. Update May 27: the first post-holiday cash close confirmed the melt-up at fresh records - S&P 500 7,519.12 (+0.61%) and Nasdaq Composite 26,656.18 (+1.19%) both intraday all-time highs, SPY 750.59 (+0.66%), QQQ 730.28 (+1.78%) - led by tech on US-Iran deal optimism, while the Dow slipped 0.23% on breadth divergence; neither invalidation leg fired (no vol-expansion break; VIX, plan-restricted on the feed, nowhere near the <15 melt-up-confirmation leg). Update May 28: the Wednesday cash close confirmed the melt-up at a third consecutive record - S&P 500 7,520.36 (+0.02%), Nasdaq Composite 26,674.73 (+0.07%), and the Dow joined with a record 50,644.28 (+0.36%), the first time all three printed records together in 2026, with VIX easing to 17.01 closer to the <15 melt-up-confirmation leg; SPY 750.46 and QQQ 729.45 closed essentially flat (semi-rotation pullback at the ETF level). Thursday pre-market futures are lower with a Polymarket 55% lower-open probability ahead of the April PCE print. Update May 29: the strongest melt-up tell of the sequence - the Thursday cash session made a fourth consecutive record THROUGH the hottest annual PCE in three years (S&P 500 7,563.63 (+0.58%), Nasdaq Composite ~26,917 (+0.91%), Dow 50,668.97 (+0.05%)), confirmed at the ETF level (SPY 754.60 (+0.55%), QQQ 735.60 (+0.84%)), with VIX falling to ~15.61 - the closest the <15 melt-up-confirmation leg has come; the in-line PCE with soft monthly pace removed the inflation overhang and Friday extended near fresh records on the Iran-MoU optimism. Neither invalidation leg has fired - VIX is not yet <15, let alone for five trading days. Update June 1: the Friday cash close converted the midday read into a FIFTH consecutive record at the ETF level - SPY 756.48 (+0.25%), Massive-verified, QQQ 738.31 (+0.37%), Nasdaq-100 30,333 - the S&P touched a record 7,581 intraday during May and the index is closing on a ninth consecutive winning week, a streak seen only 10 times since 1945 with 90% one-month-forward win rates. May ends at all-time highs, and Monday June 1 futures and pre-market rose (SPY 757.86 pre-market, tech leading) THROUGH the weekend US self-defense strikes on Iran and the stalled MoU - the tape refusing to price the kinetic re-engagement. The counterweights sharpened in parallel: 8 of 11 S&P sectors FELL in May (the record is mega-cap AI leadership, not breadth), hedge-fund top-10 concentration sits at a record 72% of exposure with the GS TMT AI basket +42% YTD versus +3.5% for the S&P ex-AI, and Dimon and Hartnett are publicly drawing 1929 / 2000 / 2007 exuberance parallels. VIX is plan-restricted on the feed and unverified for Friday, so the <15-for-5-days melt-up-confirmation leg cannot be scored this refresh; neither invalidation leg has verifiably fired. Update June 2: the Monday cash session converted the morning read into a SIXTH consecutive record at the ETF level - SPY 758.54 (+0.27%), Massive-verified, QQQ 742.74 (+0.60%), Nasdaq-100 30,513.86 - and a triple cash-index record: S&P 500 7,599.96 (+0.26%), Nasdaq Composite 27,086.81 (+0.42%, its first close above 27,000), Dow 51,078.88, completing the ninth consecutive winning week. The tape did this THROUGH Iran formally stopping negotiations and vowing to completely block Hormuz and a 6% oil spike. The VIX leg is finally verified: VIX closed Friday May 29 at 15.32 and Monday at 16.05 (+4.77%) - the <15-for-5-days melt-up-confirmation leg has never fired, but Friday came within 0.32 points. ISM May manufacturing at 54.0 - the fastest factory expansion since May 2022, with the economy in its 19th month of expansion leans against the recession side. Tuesday the tape is pulling back from the records (S&P futures -0.07%, stocks lower at the open, Alphabet sliding) as Trump's "couldn't care less" Iran framing and an AI rotation (Marvell +20%, HPE +23%) dominate. The counterweights stand: 8-of-11 sectors down in May, record HF concentration, the Dimon/Hartnett warnings. Update June 3: the Tuesday morning dip reversed into a SEVENTH consecutive record at the ETF level - SPY 759.57 (+0.14%), Massive-verified, QQQ 746.16 (+0.46%) - and another triple cash-index record: the S&P 500's first close above 7,600 (7,609.78, +0.13%), the Nasdaq Composite at 27,093.90 (+0.03%), and the Dow +0.45% to 51,307.79, with chipmakers (Marvell +32.5%) driving. VIX eased to 15.77 (-1.74%) - drifting toward, but still above, the <15 melt-up-confirmation leg, which has still never fired. Unlike the prior six, this record was made WITH the news flow (revived Iran-deal proximity, AI euphoria) rather than through a hostile tape. The counterweights sharpened: Alphabet fell ~4% pricing the largest corporate equity raise on record - fresh equity supply at the index's largest weights to fund AI capex, HPE gave back most of its +23% earnings pop intraday, and Wednesday pre-market futures are little changed with Dow futures off ~0.3%. The breadth / concentration / exuberance warnings all stand. Update June 4: the streak broke. Iranian missile strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain at dawn Wednesday sent the cash session lower - SPY -0.70% to 754.24, the S&P -0.74% to 7,553.68, Nasdaq -0.89%, Dow -1.21% to 50,687.07 - ending the seven-session record run, with VIX back up to 16.52 moving away from the melt-up-confirmation leg. The Broadcom sell-the-news reversal then led a Thursday pre-market chip rout; neither invalidation leg fired (no vol-expansion break, VIX far from 25) and the recession side stayed quiet, so this is a melt-up pause, not a regime change. Update June 5: the pause became the worst equity day since April 2025 - S&P -2.64% to 7,383.74, Nasdaq -4.18% to 25,709.43, SPY -2.0% to 737.55 - decisively ending the melt-up leg, but the hot jobs print (+172k) kept the recession leg quiet: a rate-and-positioning repricing, not a vol-expansion break (VIX untripped) and not a recession signal. Update June 11: the deterioration extended through a violent three-of-four-down-sessions window. Monday's chip-led rebound (S&P +0.3% to 7,405.73) reversed into a -1.52% S&P / -3.3% Nasdaq Tuesday as Trump swung from deal optimism to strike threats (tech -5%, six defensive sectors green), then Wednesday's hot-CPI-plus-war session took the S&P -1.62% to 7,266.99 and the Dow down ~900 points, closing near session lows (SPY 725.43, QQQ 693.69). VIX closed 22.22 (+11.8%), its highest close of the sequence, after topping 23 intraday - the >25 vol-expansion leg is now the one approaching, though it has NOT fired. The recession side stays quiet (the labor market ran hot five days ago; the economy is in its 19th expansion month) and Thursday futures bounced (S&P +0.72%, Nasdaq +1.1%) on the strike-wave completion. Neither resolution leg has fired; realized volatility is building toward the vol-expansion one.