Market Data Evidence

SPY closed Monday May 18 at 738.65, -0.07% from Friday's 739.17. Massive verified open 739.83 / close 738.65 / high 741.42 / low 733.39 / volume 47.84M. Far better than the Monday-morning Polymarket 6% Up-open probability implied - the cash session integrated the Sunday escalation plus the afternoon Trump de-escalation and ended near flat.

Provenance — node opacity = source trust
Evidence Strength
Strong
Evidence Observed At
May 18, 2026 · 8:00 PM UTC
Citation
https://www.bloomberg.com/news/articles/2026-05-17/oil-climbs-as-iran-war-shows-no-sign-of-ending-markets-wrap
Citation Source
bloomberg
About Security
SPDR S&P 500 ETF
Market Metric
Close Price
Observed Value
738.65