Macro worldview (2.2.0 - Tuesday June 2 mid-morning refresh - the Monday June 1 cash session makes a SIXTH consecutive record close (SPY 758.54, Nasdaq Composite above 27,000 for the first time, all three indexes at records together) THROUGH Iran formally stopping negotiations and vowing to completely block the Strait of Hormuz; oil spikes 6%+ (WTI above $92) before Trump's Israel-Hezbollah truce claim pares the move; defense primes sell off hard on the peace framing; NVDA +6.3% converts the Computex pop; HPE and Marvell extend the AI demand tape Tuesday; ISM manufacturing prints 54.0 with prices paid at 82.1; first snapshot carrying driver loadings and thesis horizons)

2.2.0 refresh, ~23 hours after 2.1.14 - the window runs from the Monday June 1 ~11:24 AM ET intraday read through the Tuesday June 2 ~10:36 AM ET mid-morning moment, spanning the Monday cash close, the overnight Iran developments, and the Tuesday morning tape. The bump is MINOR for a structural reason: 2.2.0 is the first snapshot version to carry the driver-loading layer (each active thesis now declares driver loadings naming the macro forces it expresses, against the drivers package) and the thesis-horizon layer (thesis horizons - a distributional months-to-resolution per thesis). These give downstream consumers - the portfolio fund's driver-union weighting and the option-expression sizing that needs an expiry - their proper upstream source. The evidence refresh itself is patch-grade: no thesis added, retired, or invalidated. Net confidence moves: Persistent energy premium +0.04 (the largest step of the sequence - Iran shut down the talks and the price tape confirmed), Equity melt-up versus building recession risk +0.02 (a sixth consecutive record through a hostile tape), AI capex sustained but with China decoupling tail risk +0.01 (four independent demand confirmations in 24 hours), Stagflation risk and Fed independence stress +0.01 (ISM prices paid 82.1), and three holds.

The melt-up makes a sixth record through a hostile tape. Equity melt-up versus building recession risk steps 0.78 to 0.80 - the Monday cash session converted the morning read into a SIXTH consecutive record at the ETF level (SPY 758.54 (+0.27%), Massive-verified, QQQ 742.74 (+0.60%), Nasdaq-100 30,513.86) and a triple cash-index record (S&P 500 7,599.96 (+0.26%), Nasdaq Composite 27,086.81 (+0.42%) - its first close above 27,000 - and the Dow at 51,078.88), completing the ninth consecutive winning week - and it did so THROUGH Iran formally stopping negotiations and vowing to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and a 6% oil spike. The VIX leg is finally verified: VIX closed Friday at 15.32 and Monday at 16.05 (+4.77%) - the <15-for-5-days melt-up-confirmation leg has never fired, but Friday came within 0.32 points of it. ISM May manufacturing at 54.0 - the fastest factory expansion since May 2022 leans against the recession side. The step is again capped at +0.02: the breadth / concentration / exuberance counterweights all stand, and the Tuesday session is opening lower from the records as Trump says he "couldn't care less" whether the Iran talks collapse.

Iran shuts down the talks - and this time the price tape confirms. Persistent energy premium steps 0.70 to 0.74, the largest single-refresh move of the sequence, because both halves of the thesis finally moved together. Geopolitics: Iran halted indirect negotiations with Washington (protesting Israel's expanding Lebanon offensive) and its resistance front vowed to "completely block" the Strait of Hormuz and activate the Bab al-Mandeb - the durable-reopening invalidation leg moved sharply away. Price: the crude print that was missing in 2.1.14 landed emphatically - WTI spiked 6%+ above $92 (intraday +8%), Brent surged ~5% toward $96, and the energy complex confirmed with a structural bid (XOM 149.38 (+2.84%), CVX 185.83 (+1.85%), XLE 57.30 (+1.79%)). The step is capped at +0.04 because the two-sided risk stayed two-sided within hours: Trump announced an Israel-Hezbollah truce, said talks with Iran continue "at a rapid pace", and claimed the Strait would reopen "within the next week", paring the spike from session highs, and Tuesday crude eased (WTI back below $92, Brent ~$94).

Defense whipsaws on the peace framing; gold takes the risk-on hit. Iran war rearmament cycle holds at 0.87 +/- 0.04 through its most violent tactical session of the sequence: the structural signal (Iran shutting down the talks - the kinetic tail stays live) points one way, while the tape pointed the other - LMT 516.50 (-2.63%), RTX 174.41 (-2.92%), NOC 539.22 (-4.34%), the sharpest single-day defense selloff of the sequence, on the Trump peace framing. Overnight Israel-Hezbollah clashes continued despite the truce announcement, and the multi-year backlog (LMT $194B, RTX $271B), Golden Dome ($185B), and the $1.5T FY2027 budget proposal are unchanged. Gold structural debasement bid holds at 0.85 +/- 0.05: gold broke its two-day rebound on the risk-on record session (spot -1.9% to ~$4,455, GLD 411.26 (-1.40%), GDX 86.68 (-3.14%)) but is recovering Tuesday (~$4,514); the structural supports and the AndCondition invalidation triplet are unchanged.

AI demand evidence compounds - four confirmations in 24 hours. AI capex sustained but with China decoupling tail risk steps 0.86 to 0.87 - the Monday cash session converted the Computex pop (NVDA +6.26% to 224.36, Massive-verified - the largest single-day NVDA gain of the sequence); HPE reported a record Q2 on AI-infrastructure demand, raised its FY outlook, pulled its long-term targets forward two years, and is up ~23% Tuesday pre-market; Jensen Huang called Marvell "the next trillion-dollar company" Tuesday morning (the stock exploded ~20%) and said NVDA has supply for "very, very robust growth"; and SoftBank's Masayoshi Son called AI "50X bigger" than the dot-com boom. No new China-tail development landed - the Commerce loophole closure stands as is. AMD faded -1.16% to 510.13 on profit-taking. Broadcom's June 3 after-close print (guided to $22B revenue, with AI semiconductor revenue expected near $10.7B, +140% YoY) is tomorrow's tell.

Inflation persistence re-arms; Warsh stays quiet. Stagflation risk and Fed independence stress steps 0.82 to 0.83 - the window delivered fresh inflation-persistence corroboration on three fronts: ISM May prices paid at 82.1 - the second-highest reading since April 2022, with 66.3% of manufacturers reporting higher prices alongside the 54.0 headline PMI (growth holding up, prices not yielding), April JOLTS openings rising to 7.6M - labor demand still solid, and the energy-passthrough risk violently re-arming on the Iran talks collapse and the oil spike. The 10Y rose to ~4.47% Monday on the escalation. Fed leadership transition policy uncertainty holds at 0.51 +/- 0.09 - no Warsh-as-chair policy substance landed; June-hold pricing stands at ~98.4% (a 0.6% hike probability) with forward hike odds still building, deferring the room-to-cut-versus-higher-for-longer contradiction to the June 16-17 FOMC.

New this version - driver loadings and thesis horizons. Each active thesis now carries one to three driver loadings naming the macro forces it expresses - drawn from Inflation / debasement, Rate path, Monetary credibility, Geopolitical conflict, Energy supply, AI capex cycle, Equity risk appetite, and Volatility regime - each with a distributional loading strength and a one-line rationale, plus a thesis horizon (a triangular months-to-resolution distribution measured from this snapshot's observedAt). Two theses sharing a driver, weighted by their loadings, is the signal that they are not independent bets: the stagflation and gold theses share Inflation / debasement, the energy and rearmament theses share Geopolitical conflict, and the melt-up and AI theses share AI capex cycle. The horizons range from the melt-up thesis's ~3-month tactical window to the rearmament thesis's ~18-month structural cycle.

Catalyst calendar from here. Broadcom's June 3 after-close earnings - the next AI-capex tell, with custom-silicon read-through. The May jobs report Friday June 5. Whether the Iran talks collapse outright (Trump's "couldn't care less") or revive (his "deal within a week"), and whether Iran executes the full Hormuz / Bab al-Mandeb blockade threat. The June 16-17 first-Warsh-as-chair FOMC.