Macro worldview (2.1.14 - Monday June 1 morning refresh - the Friday May 29 close completes a fifth consecutive S&P record week (SPY 756.48) and May ends at record highs with the S&P nearing a ninth straight winning week; the weekend flips the Iran story - the tentative 60-day MoU STALLS on uranium-enrichment terms, the US fires a Hellfire at a fifth blockade-running ship and conducts fresh weekend self-defense strikes - yet Monday futures rise through it with NVDA +4% intraday on Computex 2026; Dell's $51.3B AI-server backlog (+757% YoY AI revenue) is the strongest third-party capex print of the cycle; Commerce closes the China chip loophole; gold extends its rebound)

2.1.14 refresh, ~2.9 days after 2.1.13 - the window runs from the Friday May 29 ~1:54 PM ET midday read through the Monday June 1 ~11:24 AM ET intraday moment, spanning the Friday cash close, the weekend, and the Monday morning tape. Three things 2.1.13 was waiting on resolved: the full Friday close (a FIFTH consecutive S&P record - May ends at all-time highs), the fate of the tentative 60-day US-Iran memorandum (it STALLED - Trump withheld approval over uranium-enrichment terms and the US kept enforcing the Hormuz blockade kinetically), and the month-end breadth picture (narrow: 8 of 11 sectors fell in May). Net: Equity melt-up versus building recession risk steps up (+0.02), Persistent energy premium steps back up (+0.02) as the de-escalation stalls, and the other five hold - with AI capex sustained but with China decoupling tail risk absorbing its strongest demand print of the cycle (Dell) against a worse China tail (the loophole closure) at an unchanged mean.

The melt-up extends through a fifth record and a hostile weekend. Equity melt-up versus building recession risk steps 0.76 to 0.78 - the Friday cash close made a fifth consecutive record at the ETF level (SPY 756.48 (+0.25%), Massive-verified, QQQ 738.31 (+0.37%), Nasdaq-100 30,333), the S&P touched a record 7,581 intraday during May, and the index is closing on a ninth consecutive winning week - a streak seen only 10 times since 1945, with 90% one-month-forward win rates historically. The strongest part of the tell: Monday June 1 futures and the pre-market rose (SPY 757.86 pre-market) THROUGH the weekend US self-defense strikes on Iran, the tape simply refusing to price the kinetic re-engagement. The step is held to +0.02 because the counterweights sharpened too: 8 of 11 sectors fell in May - the record is mega-cap AI leadership, not breadth, hedge-fund top-10 concentration sits at a record 72% of exposure, and Dimon and Hartnett are publicly drawing 1929 / 2000 / 2007 exuberance parallels. VIX remains plan-restricted on the feed and unverified for Friday; the <15-for-5-days melt-up-confirmation leg cannot be scored this refresh.

The 60-day MoU stalls - the de-escalation reverses. Persistent energy premium steps back up 0.68 to 0.70 - the tentative memorandum that drove the 2.1.13 step-down did NOT convert: the US disabled a fifth commercial vessel running the Hormuz blockade with a Hellfire missile, the blockade has now cost Iran ~$4.8B in oil revenue, and the ceasefire / nuclear-deal talks are formally stalled with President Trump withholding approval pending uranium-enrichment terms, followed by fresh US self-defense strikes against Iran over the weekend. The durable-Hormuz-reopening leg of the SequencedCondition moved AWAY, not closer. The mean recovers only +0.02 (not the full -0.04 given back in 2.1.13) because the price evidence is one-sided: the energy complex kept drifting lower into the Friday close (XOM 145.26 (-1.16%), CVX 182.46 (-0.31%), XLE 56.29 (-1.16%)) and no fresh crude print is available in this window to confirm the premium reasserting; the structural-deficit read (IEA 1.78 mb/d, inventories near record lows) is unchanged.

AI capex: the strongest demand print of the cycle, against a worse China tail. AI capex sustained but with China decoupling tail risk holds at 0.86 +/- 0.04 with BOTH Beta shape parameters stepped up - the two new signals offset. Demand side: Dell's quarter is the strongest third-party AI-capex confirmation yet - AI-optimized server revenue +757% YoY to $16.1B, a $51.3B AI-server backlog, $60B in AI-server sales guided for FY2027, total revenue +88% YoY (fastest in eight years), and Huang's Computex 2026 / GTC Taipei reveals (the Arm-based RTX Spark PC superchip, the Vera CPU, a Microsoft Windows-AI-PC co-engineering partnership) lifted NVDA +4.13% to ~$219.87 Monday intraday. China side: Commerce closed the loophole that had let NVDA / AMD advanced chips reach Chinese firms operating overseas - license requirements now attach to China-headquartered entities regardless of location, putting the >20% of NVDA FY2026 compute revenue that flowed through intermediaries at risk - a concrete tightening that moves the export-controls-extended invalidation leg closer. Friday itself was profit-taking (NVDA 211.14 (-1.45%), AMD 516.10 (-0.38%)) before the Monday Computex pop.

Defense holds through the stall; gold extends its rebound. Iran war rearmament cycle holds at 0.87 +/- 0.04: the Friday defense tape was mixed (LMT 530.45 (-1.28%), RTX 179.66 (+0.39%), NOC 563.68 (+0.78%)), but the weekend developments are structurally confirming - the Hellfire blockade enforcement is itself LMT-manufactured ordnance expenditure, the talks stall keeps the kinetic tail live, and invalidation still requires durable peace IMPLEMENTED plus two quarters of declining DoD outlays. Gold structural debasement bid holds at 0.85 +/- 0.05: GLD 417.12 (+1.05%) and GDX 89.49 (+2.65%) made a second consecutive rebound day, the miners leading - the structural debasement supports (244t Q1 central-bank buying, JPM / UBS / Citi targets, 755t 2026 projection) unchanged.

Stagflation and Warsh hold into the June FOMC. Stagflation risk and Fed independence stress holds at 0.82 +/- 0.04: no new inflation print landed in the window; the higher-for-longer core (3.3% April core PCE) is unchanged, and markets now price ~99.4% odds of a June hold - the rate-path question defers entirely to the June 16-17 FOMC. Fed leadership transition policy uncertainty holds at 0.51 +/- 0.09: no Warsh-as-chair policy substance landed; the firmed June-hold pricing slightly de-risks the near-term meeting while leaving the room-to-cut-versus-higher-for-longer contradiction for the FOMC itself.

Catalyst calendar from here. Whether the stalled 60-day MoU collapses outright or revives (and whether Iran retaliates for the weekend strikes). Broadcom's June 3 earnings - the next AI-capex tell, with custom-silicon read-through. The May jobs report Friday June 5. The June 16-17 first-Warsh-as-chair FOMC.