Macro worldview (2.1.8 - Friday-morning post-Warsh-swearing-in, risk-on rebound - Warsh sworn in at the White House, leaked US-Iran draft ceasefire revives peace hopes, oil eases below $100, yields ease, Dow clinches a record high, Thursday closes filled in)

Friday-morning 2.1.8 refresh, ~19 hours after 2.1.7 - the window runs from the Thursday intraday timestamp through ~10:36 AM ET Friday May 22. It captures the Thursday May 21 cash close (2.1.7 was an intraday read with most closes "not yet set"), the headline Friday catalyst - Kevin Warsh's swearing-in as Fed chair - and a risk-on rebound built on revived US-Iran peace hopes. Net arc: the named Fed transition catalyst printed on schedule, a leaked draft ceasefire pulled oil back below $100 and eased yields, and equities rallied to a fresh Dow record - a partial reversal of Thursday's "oil reclaims $100 / yields rebound" read.

Warsh sworn in at the White House. Kevin Warsh took the oath as Fed chair Friday May 22 in a White House ceremony with President Trump participating - the first White House swearing-in of a Fed chair since Greenspan in 1987, a venue choice that underscores the Fed-independence-stress lens. Fed leadership transition policy uncertainty steps 0.50 to 0.51 and the band tightens 0.11 to 0.10: the named catalyst resolved as expected and the unusual venue marginally firms the independence-stress read, but no Warsh-as-chair policy substance has landed yet - first remarks and the June 16-17 FOMC are the real tells, so the move is small and the posterior stays diffuse.

Leaked US-Iran draft ceasefire revives peace hopes. A leaked "final draft" US-Iran ceasefire agreement - Pakistan-mediated - surfaced Friday, providing for an immediate comprehensive ceasefire, guaranteed Strait of Hormuz navigation, and conditional sanctions relief, with claims it could be announced within hours. It is unconfirmed and unimplemented - well short of the durable peace every war-linked invalidation condition requires. Iran war rearmament cycle gives back the Thursday step, 0.86 to 0.85, as the renewed deal optimism re-tilts the diplomatic track toward de-escalation; the multi-year backlog (LMT $194B, RTX $271B) and Golden Dome ($185B) are unchanged. Thursday defense closes came in essentially flat - LMT 522.79, RTX 175.98, NOC 551.58 - the procurement bid steady.

Oil eases back below $100. Crude eased back below $100/bbl Friday morning (~$98) on the revived deal optimism - a partial reversal of Thursday's reclaim-$100 move. Persistent energy premium steps 0.72 to 0.71 as the tactical de-escalation reasserts, with the IEA structural read intact - the agency warned Thursday the market hits a summer "red zone" if Hormuz stays shut. Thursday energy closes eased even as crude held $100 intraday - XOM 155.29, CVX 191.01, XLE 59.13 - the structural-vs-tactical split. The band holds at 0.06.

Yields ease and equities rebound to a Dow record. Treasury yields eased Friday - the 10Y back toward ~4.57% off the week's ~4.7% high - as the Iran-peace optimism tamed the inflation read and December-hike odds came off their post-minutes peak. US stocks rebounded broadly - the Dow clinched a record high, the S&P 500 +0.55%, Nasdaq +0.53%, Russell 2000 +0.93%. Equity melt-up versus building recession risk steps 0.70 to 0.71, recovering the Thursday fade: Thursday actually closed green (SPY 742.72 +0.20%, QQQ 714.51) and Friday extended it. Neither invalidation leg moved - VIX (plan-restricted on the feed) is nowhere near the <15 melt-up-confirmation leg and there is no vol-expansion break. Stagflation risk and Fed independence stress steps 0.84 to 0.83 on the easing-yields / oil-pullback / softer-hike-odds tactical disinflation, held to -0.01 because April PCE on May 28 is the formal invalidation indicator and no new CPI / PPI / PCE landed.

Gold and AI hold. Gold structural debasement bid holds at 0.85 +/- 0.05: Friday's easing yields are a tailwind while the revived peace optimism is a small safe-haven headwind - the two offset - and Thursday closed flat (GLD 416.99, GDX 85.99) with the structural-bull supports unchanged. AI capex sustained but with China decoupling tail risk holds at 0.86 +/- 0.04: no new capex signal - NVDA closed Thursday at 219.51 (-1.77%), the beat-and-raise shrugged off into the close, while AMD held at 449.59 (+0.45%).

Catalyst calendar from here. Warsh's first public remarks as chair, and whether the leaked draft ceasefire is formally announced or collapses. Thu May 28 8:30 AM ET April PCE - the formal stagflation-thesis invalidation indicator. June 16-17 first Warsh-as-chair FOMC.