What changed between versions

Held at 2.1.0 levels (0.82 ± 0.04). No new CPI / PPI / PCE / wage data in the 14.5-hour window. Beta(33, 7.2) parameterization continues to encode ~40 effective independent observations - the Bayesian frame makes the evidence weight explicit. April PCE on May 28 is the next primary move, then June 16-17 FOMC.

Moved from 2.1.0 0.68 ± 0.07 to 0.71 ± 0.06. The Saturday May 16 Hormuz toll-mechanism formalization is a STRUCTURAL fact - Iran is institutionalizing the disruption regime, which procedurally advances the difficulty of the durable-reopening leg of the SequencedCondition. Band tightens (0.07 -> 0.06) because the offsetting diplomatic signals (Trump 20-year framing, Chinese-buyer relief consideration) are now bracketed against a concrete Iranian counter-fact rather than absent contrary evidence. Beta(17, 7) encodes ~24 effective observations - up from ~20 reflecting two weekend structural additions.

Moved from 2.1.0 0.82 ± 0.05 to 0.83 ± 0.05 - small mean step on the Kharg-Island UAE directive and Iran-ready statement; width held because the structural conviction (multi-year procurement cycles) is the same and the new evidence is incremental rather than regime-changing. Beta(25, 5.1) encodes ~30 effective observations - up from ~28 reflecting two weekend additions. The presidential unit citation already incorporated at 2.1.0; the new weekend evidence on the demand-side (Kharg directive, Iran-ready) is the marginal step.

Held at 2.1.0 levels (0.85 ± 0.05). Weekend Hormuz / Iran escalation is mildly structural-supportive (safe-haven framing) but the magnitude is well inside the band width; Friday rate move remains the operative tactical headwind. Asian open Sunday is the first re-pricing window. Beta(42, 7.5) encodes ~50 effective observations.

Held at 2.1.0 levels (0.86 ± 0.04). No new chip-side print or export-policy news in the 14.5-hour window. Beta(64, 10) encodes ~74 effective observations. NVDA Wed May 20 print is the next confidence move - expect post-print rerating, not in-front-of.

Moved from 2.1.0 0.71 ± 0.08 to 0.70 ± 0.08 - single-tick down on weekend escalation incrementally pressing the recession-risk leg. Width held - the three binary tells Wed May 20 - Thu May 21 remain the dominant uncertainty and the post-print rerating is the operative move. Beta(23, 9.9) encodes ~33 effective observations - up from ~31 reflecting weekend additions. The 0.70 level remains the "hold-into-binaries" anchor; meaningful confidence moves come post-print.

Held at 2.1.0 levels (0.50 ± 0.12). Sunday weekend market commentary on Warsh's prospective playbook is positioning chatter, not a new Warsh-as-chair datapoint. The substantive transition question remains gated by (a) the first Warsh-as-chair public statements and (b) the June 16-17 FOMC under the inherited 10Y / hot-CPI backdrop. Beta(8, 8) deliberately encodes low effective n (~16) - the snapshot's posterior on this thesis is appropriately diffuse.

Mean carried over from the 1.0.15 scalar (0.82). Tight band (stdDev 0.04) reflects four independent structural-inflation measurements in one trading week: CPI 3.8% YoY, PPI +6.0% YoY, import prices +4.2% YoY, and the 10Y rate-path 20pp repricing. Beta(33, 7.2) parameterization encodes ~40 effective independent observations - the Bayesian frame makes the evidence weight explicit. No weekend movement justifying a step.

Mean carried over from the 1.0.15 scalar (0.68). Wider band (stdDev 0.07) reflects two genuinely offsetting forces - the IEA structural-undersupply confirmation pushes confidence up, the Trump 20-year framing and possible Chinese-buyer sanction relief pushes it down. Beta(14, 6.6) parameterization expresses ~20 effective observations - lower weight than stagflation because the central-tendency signal is partly offset by the diplomatic contrary-evidence, not just absent.

Mean carried over from the 1.0.15 scalar (0.82) - same mean as stagflation but slightly wider band (stdDev 0.05 vs 0.04) because the structural conviction is multi-year procurement cycles (high) but the weekly mark-to-market is volatile (LMT/RTX/NOC trade on chip rotation as much as defense). The presidential unit citation and Algemeiner corroboration are structurally consistent but not step-change material; held rather than moved.

Migrated from 1.0.15 scalar 0.85. Tight band (stdDev 0.05) reflects three Q1 2026 structural-record datapoints (LBMA $4,873 quarterly average, 244t CB buying, $193B aggregate demand) plus three independent bank-target ranges all materially above spot ($5K-$7K). Beta(42, 7.5) encodes ~50 effective observations - high evidence weight on the structural supports, with the rate-side headwind from the 10Y move expressed via the wider stdDev rather than a mean-shift.

Migrated from 1.0.15 scalar 0.86. Tightest band (stdDev 0.04) among the four migrated theses - AMD blowout printed and confirmed in after-hours, H200 export framework intact through the Trump-Xi summit, CSCO Q3 AI-orders raise corroborated the hyperscaler-spend trajectory, and the NVDA Q1 print is a known binary tell with options-priced implied move. Beta(64, 10) encodes ~74 effective observations. The structural thesis is intact; the NVDA Wed print is the next confidence move, expected post-print not before.

Migrated from 1.0.15 scalar 0.71. Widest band of the equity-side theses (stdDev 0.08) reflecting the three back-to-back binary tells landing Wed May 20 - Thu May 21 (FOMC minutes, NVDA print, Walmart Q1). Beta(22, 9) encodes ~31 effective observations - the equity tape has carried six weeks of melt-up evidence but the recession-risk leg is now pressing materially harder (Friday repricing). The 0.71 level is explicitly the "hold-into-binaries" level - confidence moves come post-print, not in front of them.

Migrated from 1.0.15 scalar 0.50. Genuinely working-hypothesis - the substantive transition question is gated by (a) the first Warsh-as-chair public statements and (b) the June 16-17 FOMC under the inherited 10Y / hot-CPI backdrop. Neither answer arrives in this refresh's window. Beta(8, 8) deliberately encodes low effective n (~16) - the snapshot's posterior on this thesis is appropriately diffuse. Wide stdDev (0.12) is the honest representation of how little the worldview can say with confidence about a regime that hasn't started speaking yet.

Held at 0.82 for the second consecutive refresh. Saturday weekend cadence adds two directional inputs that net to flat: (1) the NYT reported May 15 that the US and Israel are intensifying preparations for potential renewed strikes on Iran, with operations possibly starting "as soon as next week" - directionally supportive of continued procurement-cycle demand and a hardening of the threat-and-engage posture entering the May 18 cash week; the Hui Chuan seizure is now widely attributed to Iran's IRGC (vs the Friday "unauthorized personnel" hedge). (2) Offsetting partly: Trump told reporters on Air Force One May 15 returning from Beijing he would accept a 20-year Iranian uranium-enrichment suspension with a "real" guarantee - an apparent shift from his prior permanent-halt demand and a partial convergence toward Iran's floated-15-year framing. Iran has not responded to the 20-year framing. Net: directional flat. The AndCondition invalidation still requires BOTH durable peace AND a sustained 2-quarter DoD outlay decline; neither moved. Defense primes don't trade on weekend reporting.

Steps from 0.66 to 0.68. The IEA May 2026 Oil Market Report is the load-bearing structural-supply confirmation: a 1.78 mb/d 2026 deficit, 3.9 mb/d world-supply fall, 14.4 mb/d Hormuz-affected output cut, and explicit warning that undersupply persists through Q3 2026 even if fighting ends early June - the agency's framing is the regime-confirming structural read that the Friday cash-market action priced in. UBS adds that global inventories approach all-time lows by end-May. The step UP would have been larger but for two Saturday partial offsets: Trump's Air Force One acceptance of a 20-year Iranian uranium-suspension (apparent shift from "permanent halt") and Trump-floated lifting of sanctions on Chinese Iranian-oil buyers - both directionally negative for the thesis, but neither addresses Iran's May 10 demand for Hormuz sovereignty (the procedural incompatibility with the SequencedCondition's first leg). Bounded by: Iran has not responded to the 20-year framing; the SequencedCondition still requires durable Hormuz reopening AND 30 days of WTI<$80, neither anywhere near firing. The IEA report makes the structural-supply case independent of any single near-term diplomatic outcome.

Steps modestly from 0.81 to 0.82. Saturday weekend reporting adds that the Friday US bond rout extended globally, with longer-dated yields most affected and the 30Y to the cusp of its 2023 peak - a fourth independent measurement confirming the structural-inflation regime (after CPI 3.8% / PPI +6.0% YoY / imports +4.2% YoY / 10Y +13bps / CME hike-odds +20pp). The bond-market cross is the international validation the regime-confirmation argument benefits from. Held below 0.85 because the formal invalidation indicator remains core PCE (releases May 28), and the next direct dovish/hawkish read is Warsh's first chair-era public statements plus the June 16-17 FOMC dot plot. The April 29 FOMC minutes release Wednesday May 20 2 PM ET will detail the historic 8-4 dissent debate but reflects Powell-era thinking. Walmart Q1 FY2027 Thursday pre-open (consensus $0.65 EPS / $174.65B revenue) is the consumer-passthrough cross-check on the stagflation-side recession leg.

Held at 0.85. Gold spot traded ~$4,540 Saturday May 16 - within daily noise of Friday's $4,530 close; weekend cash trading is closed (Asia opens Sunday). Markets have now fully ruled out a 2026 cut and some pricing favors a December hike - both immediate rate-side headwinds for the cash gold price but both structural-bull supports for the Fed-credibility leg of the thesis. The IEA structural-supply confirmation that lifts [[persistent-energy-shock]] also reinforces the structural-inflation backdrop gold is hedging. Structural-bull supports (Q1 244t CB buying, $4,873 LBMA average, $5K-$7K bank targets, Fed-credibility pressure, fiscal-deficit pressure) unchanged. The AndCondition invalidation still requires durable US-Iran peace AND Fed credibility restored AND a sustained 6-month deficit decline - none of which moved over the weekend.

Held at 0.86 entering the binary [[ev-nvda-q1-fy27-78b-guide-may20|NVDA Q1 FY2027 print]] Wednesday May 20 5 PM ET. Saturday adds three setup datapoints rather than a thesis-level move: (1) options price a 5-10% implied move (May 22 at-the-money straddles); (2) prediction-market beat probability ~97% priced in - the asymmetry is unfavorable on the upside, and NVDA has closed lower on 4 of its last 5 earnings despite beating revenue 3-4% for six straight quarters; (3) the Rubin architecture H2 2026 ramp is the new positive overhang investors are watching for. The PHLX Semiconductor Index sits ~32% above its 50-day moving average after a +143% trailing year - a consolidation setup. The H200 export framework from May 14 holds (no Saturday news on the export-controls surface, the EventCondition invalidation requires "durable export controls extended" which did NOT happen at the summit). Held rather than moved because the binary post-print confidence move is what the next refresh exists to capture. Stays well above 0.80 because the structural thesis is intact.

Held at 0.71. Cash markets closed Saturday; Sunday CME e-mini futures open 22:00 UTC. The week ahead concentrates three binary tells in 36 hours: Wednesday May 20 2 PM ET April 29 FOMC minutes (rate-path detail and the formal 8-4 dissent record); Wednesday May 20 5 PM ET NVDA Q1 FY2027 (the AI-spend tell, options price 5-10% implied move, ~97% beat probability priced in); Thursday May 21 pre-open Walmart Q1 FY2027 (consensus $0.65 EPS / $174.65B revenue - the consumer-passthrough cross-check). The IEA structural-supply confirmation lifts the energy-passthrough backdrop; the global bond rout extension hardens the rate-side recession leg; the SOX 32% above 50-day MA flags a consolidation-setup overhang. None of the invalidation operands is closer to firing, but the back-to-back tells are exactly the kind of week the worldview built the 0.71 confidence level for - confidence moves come post-print, not in front of it.

Held at 0.50 for the second consecutive refresh. No Warsh public statement over the weekend. April 29 FOMC minutes release Wednesday May 20 2 PM ET will detail the historic 8-4 dissent debate but reflects Powell-era thinking - a partial read on the regime Warsh inherits, not a direct read on Warsh's policy framing. The substantive transition question remains gated by (1) the first Warsh-as-chair public statements and (2) the June 16-17 FOMC under the inherited backdrop (10Y 4.59% / 1-year high; CME hike-by-December ~56%; global bond rout extending to 30Y near 2023 peak). None of those answers arrive in this refresh's window.

Held at 0.82. The Trump-Xi summit concluded with no concrete Iran de-escalation; Friday brought fresh Hormuz kinetic incidents (Hui Chuan seizure, Oman ship sunk) and Trump's "losing patience" framing - directionally supportive of continued procurement-cycle demand but not a step-change. Defense-prime closes were a continued daily rotation away (LMT -0.85%, RTX -2.56%, NOC -1.45%) on a chip-weak, oil-up tape - daily noise rather than a procurement signal. The AndCondition invalidation still requires BOTH durable peace AND a sustained 2-quarter DoD outlay decline; the diplomatic track moved *away* from durable peace this session. FY2026 $1T defense budget plus Golden Dome commitments remain structurally robust independent of the diplomatic track.

Steps from 0.62 to 0.66. The 1.0.13 trim to 0.62 was specifically the rhetorical Trump-Xi Hormuz-open / mediator-offer / Bessent-China-behind-scenes alignment; on Friday May 15 (the very next session) that alignment got materially walked back: Trump "losing patience" framing on Air Force One, the Hui Chuan seizure and Oman ship sinking restored the Strait-effectively-closed narrative, and China publicly confirmed it will continue buying Iranian oil. Oil priced the walk-back directly: WTI +4.5% / weekly +11%, Brent intraday to ~$110, energy equities up 2-3%. The step UP reverses the Thursday trim and adds for fresh kinetic incidents. Bounded by: Iran has still not formally responded to either the May 10 sovereignty demand context or the Trump-Xi framework; the SequencedCondition still requires durable Hormuz reopening AND 30 days of WTI<$80, neither anywhere near firing - the price action is regime-confirming not regime-resolving.

Steps from 0.79 to 0.81. The Friday May 15 oil shock (+4.5% / weekly +11%) extends the energy-passthrough directly into the April PCE and forward inflation prints; the same-day 10Y move to 4.59% (~13bps up, fresh 1-year high) and CME FedWatch hike-by-December move to ~56% (from ~36% Thursday, ~16% a week earlier) is the sharpest single-session rate-path repricing of the cycle and a sustained third-independent-measurement confirmation. The thesis statement explicitly named CME FedWatch repricing as the rate-path tell - that tell stepped 20pp in one day. Held below 0.85 because the formal invalidation indicator is core PCE (not CPI / PPI / imports / yields / hike-odds) and the April PCE release is still ahead; the June 16-17 FOMC dot plot is the next direct read on whether Warsh-as-chair shifts the dovish/hawkish balance.

Trimmed modestly from 0.86 to 0.85. The Friday cash-complex drawdown (GLD -2.31%, GDX -7.03%, spot ~$130 lower) on a rate-up day (10Y +13bps to 4.59%) is a real near-term headwind, with miners showing characteristic leverage. Offsetting: the Trump-Xi diplomatic-positive backdrop that pressured gold Thursday partly walked back Friday (Trump "losing patience" + fresh Hormuz incidents + China continuing to buy Iranian oil) - directionally supportive of the structural-bull case. Net: small trim for the cash-complex action; structural supports (Q1 244t CB buying, $4,873 LBMA average, $5K-$7K bank targets, Fed-credibility pressure, fiscal-deficit pressure) all intact. The AndCondition invalidation still requires durable US-Iran peace AND Fed credibility restored AND a sustained 6-month deficit decline - none of which moved closer in a structurally meaningful way.

Trims from 0.88 to 0.86 on the Friday May 15 chip-complex profit-taking (NVDA -4.42%, AMD -5.69%, Intel -8%, Micron -6.6%) after a parabolic week, but not a thesis break: the H200 framework holds (no policy reversal), the Trump-Xi summit concluded without AI breakdown, and CSCO printed a divergent +13.4% confirming the broader hyperscaler-spend backdrop. The trim acknowledges (1) the price-action giveback in the most-narrative-driven names ahead of the May 20 binary tell, and (2) renewed visibility into the asymmetric Chinese-side absorption (Beijing still not echoing the H200 readout, no shipments yet). The EventCondition invalidation specifically forbids "durable export controls extended" - which did NOT happen at the summit, the headline-favorable resolution from Thursday holds intact. Stays well above the 0.80 band because the structural thesis is intact and the binary tell is in four trading days.

Trims from 0.74 to 0.71, reversing Thursday's step-up exactly. The 1.0.13 step rested on a named tell: muscle-through across CPI / PPI / imports into a cap-weighted record close. That tell got tested in the next session by the Friday oil shock (WTI +4.5% / weekly +11%) + tech wreck (NVDA -4.4%, AMD -5.7%, Intel -8%, Micron -6.6%) + 10Y to 4.59% / yearly high + CME hike-by-Dec jumping to ~56% from ~36% - and did not hold (SPX -1.24% below 7,500, Nasdaq -1.54% off record). The trim reverts to the pre-Thursday confidence level rather than going further: VIX at ~19 stays inside the mid-zone (well below 25), no break of 50DMA, no breach of the ThresholdCondition operands, and the divergent CSCO +13.4% says the AI-spend backdrop is still confirming. The melt-up-confirmation invalidation (SPX > 7,300 with VIX < 15 for 5 trading days) is now further from firing, not closer.

Held at 0.50. Powell completed the chair-term exit smoothly with conciliatory final remarks (no transition-vol event). Warsh is now chair but no public statement has landed; the substantive policy-content question opens at the June 16-17 FOMC, not at the chair-term commencement. Friday's rate-market repricing (10Y +13bps to 4.59%, CME hike-by-December to ~56% from ~36% Thursday) sharpens the contradiction between Warsh's "room to cut without inflation" framing and the inherited CPI / PPI / imports / oil backdrop, but sharpening a known tension is not the same as resolving the transition question. The active question remains the first set of public statements Warsh makes as chair, none of which arrive in this refresh window.

Held at 0.82. The Trump-Xi joint Hormuz / no-Iran-nuclear-weapon statement and Xi's mediation offer are diplomatic-track inputs that do not bear on US procurement, and Iran has not responded. The intraday window carried no fresh US-Iran kinetic event. Defense-prime closes were a rotation-away (LMT flat, RTX -1.4%, NOC -0.6%) on a chip-led record-equity tape, which is daily noise rather than a procurement signal. The AndCondition invalidation still requires BOTH durable peace AND a sustained 2-quarter DoD outlay decline, neither near firing. FY2026 $1T defense budget plus Golden Dome commitments remain structurally robust independent of the diplomatic track.

Trimmed from 0.65 to 0.62. The Trump-Xi joint Hormuz "must remain open" statement plus Xi's mediation offer plus Bessent's "China to work behind the scenes" framing represent a real but small first step toward the SequencedCondition's first leg (durable Hormuz reopening) - China's commercial interest in Hormuz reopening + ability to influence Iran is a new structural lever the prior diplomatic track lacked. Bounded by: oil settled essentially flat ($101 / $105), Iran has not responded, sovereignty demand intact, blockade in force, Chinese state media did not echo the Hormuz line. The trim is the rhetorical shift, not a structural break - the SequencedCondition still requires durable reopening AND 30 days of WTI<$80, neither near firing.

Held at 0.79. The Thursday import-prices print (+1.9% m/m, +4.2% YoY, fuel +16.3% m/m) is a third consecutive hot inflation reading and adds confirming evidence rather than a step change; CME FedWatch hike-by-December at ~36% (up from ~16% a week earlier) confirms the rate-path repricing across an independent measurement. The 10Y easing 2bp counter to the print is also more confirmation that the backdrop is priced rather than a fresh shock. April retail sales solid +0.5% m/m / +0.7% core sustains the consumer absorbing rather than breaking. Held rather than stepped because core PCE prints - not CPI, PPI, imports, or rate-path repricing - are the formal invalidation indicator, and the April PCE release is still ahead this month.

Trimmed from 0.87 to 0.86. The Trump-Xi joint Hormuz "must remain open" + Iran "can never have nuclear weapon" + Xi mediation offer represent a partial step toward the durable-peace leg of the AndCondition - small but real, since Xi's influence over Iran + commercial interest in Hormuz reopening is a new structural lever. Cash complex was orderly soft on the day (GLD -0.8%, GDX -2.4%, miners showing leverage on the rate-up + diplomatic-positive backdrop) - inside normal daily noise. The AndCondition invalidation still requires three hard things simultaneously - durable US-Iran peace AND Fed credibility restored AND a sustained 6-month deficit decline - none of which moved closer in a structurally meaningful way; the trim is the diplomatic-pathway alignment, not a structural break.

Steps from 0.85 to 0.88 on the H200 export approval to ~10 Chinese firms (Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD.com plus Lenovo and Foxconn distributors). The H20 / MI308 / H200 export-control surface this thesis named as the binary China-policy axis just resolved on the favorable side at the Trump-Xi summit - the EventCondition invalidation specifically forbids "durable export controls extended" and the headline movement is the opposite. Magnitude bounded by: deals have stalled (no shipments yet, Beijing pulled firms back), per-firm 75K-chip cap is meaningful, and Chinese-side absorption uncertainty remains. NVDA +4.4% to a fresh ATH $235.74 priced the breakthrough; the next binary tell (May 20 NVDA Q1 FY2027 print at $78B / +77% YoY) is now structurally de-risked. Cisco AH +15% with FY26 AI orders raised to $9B from $5B independently confirms the hyperscaler-spend backdrop. Held below 0.90 because the China-shipment-actually-arriving leg is still unresolved.

Steps from 0.71 to 0.74 on the first SPX close above 7,500 in history (7,501.24, +0.77%) and the Nasdaq Composite record (26,635.22, +0.88%) on a session that absorbed a hot April import-prices print (+1.9% m/m, +4.2% YoY, fuel +16.3% m/m) with VIX still at 17.87 inside the mid-zone. The named tell is the muscle-through across three consecutive hot inflation prints (CPI / PPI / imports) - the melt-up is structural, not noise-driven. Cisco AH +15% on raised FY26 AI orders ($9B from $5B) provides independent hyperscaler-spend confirmation that lands during the next session. April retail sales +0.5% m/m / +0.7% core says the consumer is absorbing rather than breaking. Held below the 0.80 band because the recession-risk leg stays live (CME hike-by-December ~36%, 10Y near 10-month high, hot inflation backdrop intact) and the melt-up confirmation invalidation requires VIX < 15 sustained for 5 trading days - the invalidation-favorable side has NOT fired even though SPX > 7,300 is comfortably met.

Held at 0.50. Powell exits the chair Friday May 15 and Warsh's first public words as chair have not yet landed - the substantive policy-content question opens at the June 16-17 FOMC, not at the chair-term commencement. The Thursday rate-market state (zero 2026 cuts priced, ~36% hike-by-December via CME FedWatch) sharpens the contradiction between Warsh's "room to cut without inflation" framing and the inherited CPI / PPI / imports backdrop, but sharpening a known tension is not the same as resolving the transition question. The active question remains the first set of public statements Warsh makes as chair, none of which arrive in this refresh window.

Held at 0.82. The May 14 intraday refresh window carried no fresh US-Iran kinetic event on the wire and no new munitions-consumption data - the thesis neither extends nor weakens. The third round of direct Israel-Lebanon talks opened in Washington on May 14 (continuing Friday), a diplomatic-track datapoint on the regional periphery that does not bear on the US defense procurement cycle. The AndCondition invalidation still requires BOTH durable peace AND a sustained 2-quarter DoD outlay decline, neither near firing. FY2026 $1T defense budget plus Golden Dome commitments remain structurally robust independent of the diplomatic track.

Held at 0.65. The May 14 intraday window extended Wednesday's consolidation - WTI steadied above $101 and Brent held near $106-107 with no fresh Iran or OPEC catalyst on the wire. No new structural step in either direction; the consecutive 3%+ Tuesday-and-prior days already established the structural-impairment read. Capped well below the 0.70-band because the OrCondition invalidation still has the SequencedCondition (durable Hormuz reopening followed by 30 days of WTI<$80) which would require multiple causal steps to fire favorably - markets will price the absence of those steps incrementally rather than all at once.

Held at 0.79. The May 14 intraday window adds rate-market confirmation rather than a new fact: futures now price zero 2026 cuts and roughly a 40% chance of a Fed hike by year-end, and commentary openly questions whether Warsh can support any cut under the current oil-above-100, hot-CPI-and-PPI backdrop - the April CPI and PPI shock propagating into the rate path. The 10Y eased a few basis points to roughly 4.45-4.46% on the day, mildly counter, but stayed near its mid-2025 high. The joint AND invalidation (core PCE < 2.5% for 3 months AND unemployment 4.0-4.5%) requires data this backdrop works against. Held rather than stepped because core PCE prints - not CPI, PPI, or rate-path repricing - are the formal invalidation indicator, and the April PCE release is still ahead this month.

Held at 0.87. On the May 14 intraday day gold spot held near $4,705, inside its recent band, on a marginally easier-rates session (10Y back to roughly 4.45-4.46%). No structural step in either direction; the prior days already showed gold absorbing a hostile mechanical setup with discipline, and an orderly hold on an easier-rates day adds nothing that moves conviction. The AndCondition invalidation still requires three hard things simultaneously - durable US-Iran peace AND Fed credibility restored AND a sustained 6-month deficit decline - none of which moved closer in the refresh window.

Held at 0.85. The Trump-Xi summit convened in Beijing for a two-day session (May 14-15) - the China-policy axis this thesis flagged - with the H20 / MI308 export-control surface being negotiated live alongside tariffs, rare earths and Taiwan; Xi's opening "great jeopardy" warning on Taiwan set a confrontational tone, but the summit is convened, not resolved, so it is not yet a confidence input. A same-day Cantor Fitzgerald target raise to $350 is noted but a single analyst note is not load-bearing. The May 20 NVDA Q1 FY2027 print remains the binary tell - if NVDA delivers $78B with the +77% YoY trajectory the thesis steps up; if guidance slips or the summit produces a hard export-control extension it steps down.

Held at 0.71. The May 14 intraday window extends the muscle-through - SPX near 7,446, a fresh intraday high just above Wednesday's record, with the VIX roughly flat near 17.98 - but an intraday print with neither invalidation leg in motion is not a confidence mover on its own, and the prior step-up to 0.71 already banked the Wednesday reclaim. The recession-risk leg stays live: the 10Y near 4.45-4.46% and a rates market now pricing roughly a 40% chance of a Fed hike by year-end keep the higher-for-longer pressure on, and the underlying earnings backdrop (84% beat, 27.1% growth, 13.4% margins) remains intact. Neither invalidation leg fires - VIX 17.98 above the 15 melt-up-confirmation threshold AND well below the 25 vol-expansion threshold.

Held at 0.50. Powell exits the chair Friday May 15 and Warsh's first public words as chair have not yet landed - the substantive policy-content question opens at the June 16-17 FOMC, not at the chair-term commencement. The May 14 rate-market repricing (zero 2026 cuts, roughly a 40% chance of a hike by year-end) sharpens the contradiction between Warsh's "room to cut without inflation" framing and the inherited CPI / PPI backdrop, but sharpening a known tension is not the same as resolving the transition question. The active question remains the first set of public statements Warsh makes as chair, none of which arrive in this refresh window.

Held at 0.82. The refresh window (Wednesday May 13 cash session) carried no fresh kinetic event and no new munitions-consumption data on the wire - the thesis neither extends nor weakens. The AndCondition invalidation still requires BOTH durable peace AND a sustained 2-quarter DoD outlay decline, neither near firing. FY2026 $1T defense budget plus Golden Dome commitments remain structurally robust independent of the diplomatic track. Defense-prime Wednesday closes (LMT $519.94, RTX $178.11, NOC $551.80) are marginally softer than Tuesday within daily noise and do not change the structural case.

Held at 0.65. Wednesday May 13 the energy complex consolidated rather than extended - WTI steadied near $102, Brent near $107, XLE near 57.63, XOM near 151.57 - with no fresh Iran or OPEC catalyst on the wire in the refresh window. No new structural step in either direction; the consecutive 3%+ Tuesday-and-prior days already established the structural-impairment read. Capped well below the 0.70-band because the OrCondition invalidation still has the SequencedCondition (durable Hormuz reopening followed by 30 days of WTI<$80) which would require multiple causal steps to fire favorably - markets will price the absence of those steps incrementally rather than all at once.

Up to 0.79 from 0.77. The April PPI release Wednesday May 13 is the new confirming tell - headline +1.4% m/m (sharpest since 2022) and +6.0% YoY, core +1.0% m/m and +5.2% YoY (highest in more than three years), wholesale inflation running hotter than the CPI. The 10Y at 4.49% (highest since July 2025) and TLT at 84.80 ratify the structural-inflation backdrop, and Warsh was confirmed Fed Chair 54-45 into that print. The joint AND invalidation (core PCE < 2.5% for 3 months AND unemployment 4.0-4.5%) requires data the PPI print explicitly works against. Capped below 0.80 because core PCE prints (not CPI or PPI) are the formal invalidation indicator and the April PCE release is later this month - the PPI is a strong-but-not-final signal.

Held at 0.87. Wednesday May 13 was a second consecutive textbook rate-up day - the 10Y pressed to 4.49% on the hot April PPI - and the cash complex absorbed it with discipline: GLD only -0.6% to $430.50 and GDX -0.9% to $96.23, both orderly. Gold continuing to hold through a hostile mechanical setup (PPI surprise + 10Y at a 10-month high + dollar strength) is the bullish read. The AndCondition invalidation still requires three hard things simultaneously - durable US-Iran peace AND Fed credibility restored AND a sustained 6-month deficit decline - none of which moved closer in the refresh window.

Held at 0.85. Wednesday May 13 NVDA bucked the hot-PPI tape and led chips higher, +2.3% to $225.83 (Massive verified), with AMD roughly flat at $445.50 - the cap-weighted leader strengthening on a rate-up day argues the AI-capex demand narrative is intact, but a single session is not the right venue for a confidence move. The Trump-Xi Beijing meeting and the H20 / MI308 export-control overlay remain the open China-policy axis, and Huang's "$50B effectively gone" framing plus the 15% revenue-share offset are already priced. The May 20 NVDA Q1 FY2027 print remains the binary tell - if NVDA delivers $78B with the +77% YoY trajectory the thesis steps up; if guidance slips it steps down.

Up to 0.71 from 0.68. Wednesday May 13 reversed Tuesday's hesitation: SPX closed at a fresh ATH 7,444.25, reclaiming AND exceeding Monday's 7,412.84 record, with the VIX FALLING to 17.99 - the tape absorbed a hot April PPI print and the 10Y at 4.49% and still set a record. The "muscle-through" hypothesis that Tuesday partially broke is restored, a stronger positive tell than Tuesday's failure was a negative one. Capped at 0.71 because the PPI shock and the 10Y at a 10-month high keep the recession-risk leg live; the underlying earnings backdrop (84% beat, 27.1% growth, 13.4% margins) remains intact. Neither invalidation leg fires - VIX 17.99 above the 15 melt-up-confirmation threshold AND well below the 25 vol-expansion threshold.

Held at 0.50. Warsh was confirmed Fed Chair 54-45 on Wednesday May 13 - the closest modern-era margin, with Fetterman again the only Democratic crossover - resolving the procedural transition exactly as the 0.50 level priced. Powell exits the chair Friday May 15. The substantive policy-content question opens at the June 16-17 FOMC, not at the chair-term commencement; the 10Y at 4.49% and the hot April PPI add long-duration and inflation pressure into the transition, directly against Warsh's "room to cut without inflation" framing. The active question becomes the first set of public statements Warsh makes as chair, none of which arrive in this refresh window.

Held at 0.82. Trump's Tuesday-evening "decimated" / "finish the job" escalation plus the new Iranian-nuclear-research sanctions ratify but do not extend the thesis - they continue the threat-and-engage simultaneity rather than constituting a fresh kinetic event on the wire. The AndCondition invalidation requires BOTH durable peace AND a sustained 2-quarter DoD outlay decline, neither of which is near firing; further upside needs concrete fresh-conflict events with verifiable munitions-consumption data. FY2026 $1T defense budget plus Golden Dome commitments survive any near-term resolution path - the procurement-cycle case is structurally robust independent of which way the diplomatic track resolves this week. Defense-prime Tuesday closes (LMT $521.00, RTX $178.89) confirm the equity-side translation is intact.

Up to 0.65 from 0.62. Tuesday final settles extended the rally past the intraday baseline reading captured in 1.0.9 (WTI to $102.18 final from $101.37 intraday; Brent $107.77 final from $107.58 intraday) - the second consecutive 3%+ day confirms the move is structural-impairment pricing rather than one-day-spike on the diplomatic-rejection headline. Sector internals participated: XLE +2.6% with XOM +3.5%, validating that the equity-side energy complex is repricing in step with crude, not lagging. Treasury market also confirmed the regime: 30Y crossed 5.00% (+3bp), 10Y +4bp. Capped well below the 0.70-band because the OrCondition invalidation still has the SequencedCondition (durable Hormuz reopening followed by 30 days of WTI<$80) which would require multiple causal steps to fire favorably - markets will price the absence of those steps incrementally rather than all at once.

Up to 0.77 from 0.75. The Treasury market's Tuesday move is the new tell since the 1.0.9 snapshot - 30Y crossed 5.00% to 5.023% (+3bp) and 10Y to 4.459% (+4bp), the bond market's direct validation of the CPI surprise pricing the structural-inflation backdrop. The post-print commentary shift toward 2027 hike-pricing was explicit Tuesday afternoon, not just intraday-morning speculation, and now lands into the Wednesday-morning Fed Chair vote. The lift came WITHOUT the May settles in the data (April covers April measurements; the $98-$102 WTI moves transmit into May CPI on the same mechanism). The joint AND invalidation (core PCE < 2.5% for 3 months AND unemployment 4.0-4.5%) requires data the Tuesday print explicitly works against. Capped below 0.80 because core PCE prints (not CPI) are the formal invalidation indicator and the April PCE release is later this month - the CPI is a strong-but-not-final signal.

Held at 0.87. Tuesday produced exactly the textbook hot-CPI / nominal-yield-up day for gold spot - spot pulled back to ~$4,695-4,700 on dollar/yield strength while the ETF complex (GLD -0.2%, GDX +1.7%) actually held up better and miners closed near session highs after testing intraday lows. The cash market's discipline through a hostile mechanical setup (CPI surprise + 30Y above 5.00% + dollar strength) is the bullish read - if gold buyers were going to capitulate on a rate-up day, today was the day. AndCondition invalidation still requires three hard things simultaneously - durable US-Iran peace AND Fed credibility restored AND a sustained 6-month deficit decline - all of which moved further away today, not closer. Trump-Xi Beijing meeting and Wednesday chair vote add reflexive uncertainty into the official-sector-buying side.

Held at 0.85. Tuesday chip-sector weakness (AMD -1.5%, MU -2.8% off ATH) sits within the broad-market macro pullback rather than constituting a thesis-specific break - NVDA bucking +0.6% on day argues the cap-weighted leader is not capitulating. The Trump-Xi Beijing meeting opens a new China-policy axis but cuts both directions: an engagement event is structurally helpful, but the H20 / MI308 export-control overlay is the binding constraint until any framework explicitly relaxes it. Both Huang's "$50B effectively gone" framing and the 15% revenue-share offset structure are already priced. The May 20 NVDA Q1 FY2027 print remains the binary tell - if NVDA delivers $78B with the +77% YoY trajectory the thesis steps up; if guidance slips it steps down. Until either the Beijing outcome or the May 20 print, today's tech pullback is not the right venue for a confidence move.

Down to 0.68 from 0.70. Two new tells fired Tuesday in the cash close vs the 1.0.9 intraday read: (1) SPX final 7,400.96 did NOT reclaim Monday's 7,412.84 ATH despite the late-session recovery from the -0.37% low - the "muscle-through" hypothesis fails on a strict reading; (2) IWM small caps reversed the intraday +0.33% Russell read into a -1.5% close, so the small-cap divergence that softened 1.0.9's step-down did not hold. Combined with WTI settling above $102 and 30Y crossing 5.00% (recession-risk inputs both adding), the cap-weighted melt-up case absorbed incremental damage at the close. Neither invalidation leg fires - VIX 18.38 still elevated above the 15 melt-up-confirmation threshold AND well below the 25 vol-expansion threshold. Stepping down only -0.02 (not further) because the underlying earnings backdrop (84% beat rate, 27.1% growth, 13.4% margins) hasn't deteriorated - only the macro overlay has - and the Wednesday-overnight futures sit near flat rather than continuation-down.

Held at 0.50. The Tuesday confirmation 51-45 lands procedurally as expected, with one small substantive note: Coons NOT crossing on the confirmation vote (vs Monday cloture) tightens the bipartisan margin on substance and reinforces the historically-partisan-Fed-Chair pattern. But the procedural binary was already in the 0.50 level; the substantive policy-content question opens at June 16-17 FOMC, not at the chair-term commencement Friday. Post-CPI rate-path commentary explicitly raised the possibility of 2027 hike-pricing - directly against Warsh's "room to cut without inflation" framing - and the 30Y break above 5.00% adds long-duration pressure into the transition. The chair vote Wednesday is procedurally near-certain; the active question becomes the first set of public statements Warsh makes as chair, none of which arrive in this refresh window.

Held at 0.82. Trump's Tuesday escalation ("garbage" / "1% chance" / reportedly weighing military options) and Iran's threat of "heavy assault against US assets" tilt threat-and-engage further toward engage but do not constitute a fresh kinetic event on the wire at snapshot time. The AndCondition invalidation requires BOTH durable peace AND a sustained 2-quarter DoD outlay decline, neither of which is near firing; further upside needs concrete fresh-conflict events with verifiable munitions-consumption data. FY2026 $1T defense budget plus Golden Dome commitments survive any near-term resolution path - the procurement-cycle case is structurally robust independent of which way the diplomatic track resolves this week.

Up to 0.62 from 0.58. Tuesday oil response confirms structural transmission past the Monday +3% move - WTI broke $100 (June +3.3% to $101.37, first triple-digit trade since the post-ceasefire drawdown) and Brent July +3.2% to $107.58, both extending Monday's +3% rather than mean-reverting. Aramco CEO Nasser's "~100M bbl/week" framing is the first major industry-CEO supply-side quantification - it shifts the energy thesis from "wartime premium that could unwind" to "structural supply impairment that needs months to rebuild even after a deal." Trump considering military options plus Iran threatening "heavy assault against US assets" adds tail-risk premium. Capped well below the 0.70-band because the OrCondition invalidation still has the SequencedCondition (durable Hormuz reopening followed by 30 days of WTI<$80) which would require multiple causal steps to fire favorably - markets will price the absence of those steps incrementally rather than all at once.

Up to 0.75 from 0.70. The Tuesday April CPI print fired the binary tell that anchored 1.0.8's "right place for the next confidence move" framing. Headline 3.8% (above 3.7% consensus) and core 2.8% (above 2.7% consensus) both surprised hot, with BLS explicitly attributing more than 40% of the headline gain to energy. The lift came WITHOUT the Monday May 11 oil settles in the data (April CPI covers April measurements; the +3% Mon and +3% Tues oil moves transmit into May CPI on the same mechanism). Market reaction validates the stagflation framing: equities pulled back from record highs, oil extended its rally, and post-print commentary explicitly raised the possibility of 2027 hike-pricing rather than cut-pricing. The joint AND invalidation (core PCE < 2.5% for 3 months AND unemployment 4.0-4.5%) requires data the Tuesday print explicitly works against. Capped below 0.80 because core PCE prints (not CPI) are the formal invalidation indicator and the April PCE release is later this month - the CPI is a strong-but-not-final signal.

Held at 0.87. The Tuesday backdrop strengthened every structural pillar simultaneously - hot CPI (Fed credibility under stress), oil above $100 (energy-inflation feedback), Iran-deal collapse (durable-peace leg of joint-AND invalidation moves further from firing), Trump considering military options (geopolitical safe-haven bid). Holding rather than stepping up because no Tuesday gold spot print has been verified yet at the 14:06 UTC snapshot timestamp (~36 minutes into the cash session); gold typically does not move one-for-one with daily geopolitical news, and the structural-bull case is robust enough that intraday confirmation is not required. AndCondition invalidation still requires three hard things simultaneously - durable US-Iran peace AND Fed credibility restored AND a sustained 6-month deficit decline - all of which moved further away today, not closer.

Held at 0.85. Tuesday Nasdaq -0.65% intraday on hot CPI and oil spike is broad-market macro noise, not a thesis-specific event. The AMD/NVDA/Micron three-session rotation (May 5 AH +18%, May 8 +8.7%, May 11 +2.4% for AMD; NVDA +1.96% Monday; Micron fresh ATH Monday) was the recent thesis-relevant signal and it held through the Monday close. The May 20 NVDA Q1 FY2027 print remains the binary tell - if NVDA delivers $78B with the +77% YoY trajectory and the H20/MI308 China revenue-share offset materializes against Huang's $50B "effectively gone" framing, the thesis steps up; if guidance slips or the China impairment widens, it steps down. Until the print, today's tech pullback is not the right venue for a confidence move.

Down to 0.70 from 0.72. The Tuesday hot CPI plus oil-above-$100 combination produced a direct first-hour pullback from Monday's fresh ATHs - SPX -0.37%, NDX -0.65% (tech-led drawdown), DJI -0.21%. That is the cleanest direct response to a thesis-relevant tell since the May 6 melt-up framing was first articulated; the muscle-through hypothesis the 1.0.8 step-up partially relied on did not survive the first hour of cash after the print. RUT +0.33% diverged but is a smaller-cap signal less directly tied to the thesis. Neither invalidation leg fires - VIX still elevated above the 15 melt-up-confirmation threshold AND well below the 25 vol-expansion threshold. The recession-risk leg accumulated incremental support from energy passthrough confirmation, but it's still incremental rather than thesis-breaking. Stepping back to 0.70 rather than further because the underlying earnings backdrop (84% beat rate, 27.1% growth, 13.4% margins) hasn't deteriorated - only the macro overlay has.

Held at 0.50. Cloture passed 49-44 Monday with Fetterman and Coons crossing - confirmation is now procedurally locked. The "what does Warsh do once confirmed" risk premium is the active question, which June 16-17 FOMC resolves first. Tuesday's April CPI print 3.8% headline / 2.8% core (both above consensus) under Powell's chair frames the inflation backdrop Warsh inherits - and constrains the dovish-tilt-from-the-chair scenario more than the May 9 baseline implied. The post-CPI rate-path commentary explicitly raised the possibility of 2027 hike-pricing rather than cut-pricing, against Warsh's "room to cut without inflation" framing. Holding rather than moving because the binary collapse of the confirmation question is already in the 0.50 level; the substantive policy-content question opens at the June FOMC, not at the chair-term commencement Friday.

Up to 0.82 from 0.80. Trump's May 11 escalation - "massive life support" framing of the ceasefire plus "just like we knocked them out again today, we'll knock them out a lot harder, and a lot more violently" - implies a fresh kinetic exchange on Monday that the snapshot cannot fully characterize from open sources at this timestamp but that tilts the threat-and-engage posture further toward engage. Iran reaffirming its demands as "legitimate" / "reasonable and responsible" and vowing to "never bow" keeps durable peace structurally further away. The cumulative munitions-fired denominator (UAE Defense Ministry total: 438 ballistic + 2,012 drones + 19 cruise through April 1) gives a real consumption rate that LMT $194B / RTX $271B backlogs have to absorb. FY2026 $1T defense budget plus Golden Dome commitments survive any deal scenario. Capped near 0.85 - the AndCondition invalidation requires BOTH durable peace AND a sustained 2-quarter DoD outlay decline, neither of which is near firing; further upside needs more concrete fresh-conflict events.

Up to 0.58 from 0.55. Monday oil response is the direct price confirmation - WTI June +3% settle $98.07, Brent July +3% settle $104.21, intraday WTI near $99 and Brent above $105. The market priced the structural transmission rather than shrugging it off. Hormuz transit data deteriorated procedurally: 17 vessels in a day with 7 of them AIS-dark / EO-detected only - the exact opacity Iran's PGSA application overlay was designed to produce. Iran on May 11 doubled down on demands as "legitimate" and "reasonable and responsible" with no walk-back. Capped well below the high-conviction band because the invalidation OrCondition still has the SequencedCondition (durable Hormuz reopening followed by 30 days of WTI<$80) which would require multiple causal steps to fire favorably - markets will price the absence of those steps incrementally rather than all at once.

Held at 0.70. April CPI consensus (3.7-3.8% headline) is materially above March 3.3% with gasoline passthrough explicitly cited as the driver; multiple forecasters (Kiplinger, Wells Fargo, Barclays) call for ~0.55-0.70% m/m. The Monday May 11 oil move (WTI +3% settle $98.07, Brent +3% settle $104.21) mechanically confirms the passthrough is still propagating into the Tuesday print rather than fading. With Iran-deal rejection deferring any energy-relief tail and Trump escalating to "massive life support," Tuesday's CPI likely confirms the energy-shock-to-inflation transmission directly. UMich May preliminary sentiment 48.2 (fresh record low) anchors the consumer-side stress. April NFP soft (115K) and AHE +3.6% YoY shave the wage-pressure leg slightly. Holding rather than stepping up because Tuesday's print is the binary tell and the right venue for the next confidence move - the joint AND invalidation (core PCE < 2.5% for 3 months AND unemployment 4.0-4.5%) requires data the print's direction explicitly works against.

Held at 0.87. Spot price pulled back to roughly $4,677-4,730 from Friday's $4,720-4,740 - inside the normal daily band rather than a structural break, and gold typically does not move one-for-one with daily geopolitical news. The AndCondition invalidation requires three hard things simultaneously - durable US-Iran peace AND Fed credibility restored AND a sustained 6-month deficit decline - and the durable-peace leg moved further away with the May 11 Trump escalation, not closer. 30Y Treasury yield 4.97% (May 7 Massive verified, May 8 / May 11 not yet posted upstream) sustains the "term premium signaling fiscal stress" framing. Thesis stays comfortably above 0.85 but capped below 0.90 - one of the three legs (e.g. a sudden Fed-credibility surprise) could still fire on its own without the others.

Held at 0.85. NVDA Monday +1.96% to $219.44 and AMD +2.4% extend the Friday post-Q1 rally; Micron printed a fresh ATH as AI memory demand accelerates. The chip-stock rotation theme (Wall Street observing the "changing of the guard in AI" from NVDA to broader semis including Intel, AMD, Micron) supports the demand-side read independent of NVDA-specific risk. NVDA's May 20 guidance ($78B Q1 FY2027 revenue, +77% YoY, China DC explicitly zero) reaffirms the capex thesis without embedding any China optionality. Huang's "$50B Chinese market effectively gone" framing makes the China-decoupling tail explicit and accepted. The May 20 print remains the binary tell for any next confidence move.

Up to 0.72 from 0.70 - partial revert of the Sunday tactical step-down that anticipated cash-market weakness which did not materialize. SPX printed 7,412.84 (first close above 7,400) and NDX printed a fresh ATH at 26,274.13 despite the Iran rejection and the Trump escalation - that muscle-through deserves recognition. But the recession-risk leg also got incremental support (oil +3%, VIX +6.80% to 18.36, deal-track failure, energy passthrough mechanically locked into Tuesday's CPI), so the recovery stays partial - not back to 0.75. Neither invalidation leg fires: VIX 18.36 well below the 25 vol-expansion threshold; the "unimpeded melt-up" leg (SPX>7,300 with VIX<15) also cannot fire with VIX at 18. Tuesday's April CPI is the next material binary tell.

Held at 0.50. Cloture timing locked (Monday 5:30 PM ET / 21:30 UTC); Fetterman support confirmed; Tillis hold lifted; 53-seat Republican majority makes confirmation procedurally near-certain. The 1.0.4 step-down to 0.50 captured the binary collapse correctly - what remains is the "what does Warsh do once confirmed" risk premium. Tuesday's April CPI prints under the transition gaze (Powell still in chair through Friday May 15) - consensus 3.7-3.8% headline is the inherited inflation framing Warsh will inherit. Monday's oil move (+3% on the Iran rejection) makes the energy passthrough into Tuesday's print mechanically harder to undo. 10Y / 30Y curve at 4.41% / 4.97% (May 7) keeps the duration term-premium argument alive. June 16-17 FOMC is Warsh's first chair meeting.

Up to 0.80 from 0.75. Trump rejection of the Iran response on Sunday May 10 ("TOTALLY UNACCEPTABLE") moves durable peace materially further away and locks the procurement-cycle case in. The cumulative munitions-fired denominator (UAE Defense Ministry total: 438 ballistic missiles + 2,012 drones + 19 cruise missiles through April 1) gives a real consumption rate that LMT $194B / RTX $271B backlogs have to absorb. FY2026 $1T defense budget plus Golden Dome commitments survive any deal scenario. Capped at 0.80 - the invalidation requires BOTH durable peace AND a sustained 2-quarter DoD outlay decline, neither of which is near firing.

Up to 0.55 from 0.45 - largest single-thesis bump on this refresh. The diplomatic-track tell from 1.0.5 fired unfavorably during Sunday. Iran's response demanded "full Iranian sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz" - structurally incompatible with the SequencedCondition's "durable reopening" leg, which requires the strait to be open by international convention rather than at IRGC discretion. Lloyd's List quantifies how thin even the post-ceasefire baseline is (40 ships/week vs 120/day pre-war). Iran's PGSA application form is the procedural manifestation of "open at IRGC discretion" - cementing control, not relinquishing it. The Qatar LNG transit signal from 1.0.4 / 1.0.5 reads correctly as a partial exception inside a contested environment, not a durable signal. Brent / WTI didn't collapse on the deal-rejection news, but the path-to-energy-relief that markets had been pricing has materially deferred.

Up to 0.70 from 0.65. April CPI consensus (3.7-3.8% headline) is materially above March 3.3% with gasoline passthrough explicitly cited as the driver; multiple forecasters (Kiplinger, Wells Fargo, Barclays) call for ~0.55-0.70% m/m. With Iran-deal rejection deferring any energy-relief tail, Tuesday's print likely confirms the energy-shock-to-inflation transmission directly. UMich May preliminary sentiment 48.2 (fresh record low) anchors the consumer-side stress; one-third of respondents spontaneously cite gas prices. April NFP soft (115K) and AHE +3.6% YoY shave the wage-pressure leg slightly, but the energy + sentiment + Fed-transition combination dominates. Capped at 0.70 - the joint AND invalidation (core PCE < 2.5% for 3 months AND unemployment 4.0-4.5%) requires data that simply isn't in this print's direction.

Up to 0.87 from 0.85. The AndCondition invalidation requires three hard things simultaneously - durable US-Iran peace AND Fed credibility restored AND a sustained 6-month deficit decline - and the durable-peace leg just stepped further away with the Trump rejection of Iran's May 10 response. 30Y Treasury yield 4.97% (May 7, Massive verified) sustains the "term premium signaling fiscal stress" framing. GLD Friday close $433.77 confirms the bid held in cash. The thesis stays comfortably above 0.85 but capped below 0.90 - one of the three legs (e.g. a sudden Fed-credibility surprise) could still fire on its own without the others.

Held at 0.85. AMD Friday close $455.19 (verified via Massive) sustains the post-print follow-through and validates the demand-side read independent of NVDA. NVDA's May 20 guidance ($78B Q1 FY2027 revenue, +77% YoY, China DC explicitly zero) reaffirms the capex thesis without embedding any China optionality. Huang's "$50B Chinese market effectively gone" framing makes the China-decoupling tail explicit and accepted. The May 20 print remains the binary tell for any next confidence move.

Down to 0.70 from 0.75. The Trump rejection of Iran's response Sunday is a Sunday-evening narrative shift that the Sunday futures session is the first venue to price. The cash market closed Friday at SPX 7,398.93 / SPY $737.62 (Massive verified). Tuesday's April CPI print into a no-energy-relief environment is the more material near-term tell - consensus 3.7-3.8% headline. The sentiment-vs-price divergence widened sharply this week (UMich record low 48.2). The melt-up is intact but the recession-risk leg got incrementally stronger - stepping confidence down to register the imbalance, not flipping toward the vol-expansion invalidation since neither leg is close to firing.

Held at 0.50. Cloture timing locked (Monday 5:30 PM ET); Fetterman support confirmed; Tillis hold lifted; 53-seat Republican majority makes confirmation procedurally near-certain. The 1.0.4 step-down to 0.50 captured the binary collapse correctly - what remains is the "what does Warsh do once confirmed" risk premium. Tuesday's April CPI prints under the transition gaze (Powell still in chair through Friday May 15) - consensus 3.7-3.8% headline is the inherited inflation framing Warsh will inherit. 10Y / 30Y curve at 4.41% / 4.97% (May 7) keeps the duration term-premium argument alive. June 16-17 FOMC is Warsh's first chair meeting.

Held at 0.75. Trump Sunday Truth Social claim that the US has "destroyed and sunk 9 Iranian Naval Ships" revises the kinetic-engagement count up from the May 7 official figure of 7 small boats. ADNOC Ruwais refinery shutdown means the May 8 UAE strike caused real economic damage and reinforces the diplomatic cost of further escalation - both legs of the procurement-cycle case. Munitions consumption rate inside the "ceasefire" remains non-trivial; Golden Dome and replenishment obligations are committed regardless of whether the MOU lands.

Up to 0.50 from 0.45. Two new structural reinforcements landed since 1.0.5: (1) Iran formalized a vessel-vetting government agency for Hormuz transit, codifying the IRGC "safe transit under conditions" posture as policy rather than informal practice - the "open with conditions" framing is now a fee-and-inspection regime, not a gesture; (2) ADNOC shut the 922K bpd Ruwais refinery following May 8 fire damage from the Iranian missile/drone strike on Abu Dhabi - a real supply hit that 1.0.5 missed. Combined with the still-active kinetic environment and Trump Sunday claims of 9 Iranian ships sunk, the durable-Hormuz-reopening leg of the SequencedCondition invalidation walks further away. Not yet at 0.55+ because cash markets are closed (no fresh price confirmation) and Trump still claims the ceasefire holds.

Up to 0.68 from 0.65. NY Fed Survey of Consumer Expectations (April release, dated May 7) showed median 1y inflation expectation rose 0.2 pp to 3.6% - a second independent inflation-expectations release moving the same direction as UMich (4.5% 1y print). Consensus and prediction-market forecasts for Tuesday April CPI sit in the 3.5-3.9% range with modal 3.6-3.8% (Polymarket, Robinhood prediction markets) - well above the 3.3% March headline. The pre-print drift in expectations and forecasts is itself a stagflation signal. Step to 0.68 ahead of the actual print; if Tuesday lands in range with energy contributing, expect another step up next refresh.

Held at 0.85. No new gold-specific data this refresh (cash gold does not trade weekends; futures open 22:00 UTC). The reinforcing weekend developments - Iran formalizing Hormuz transit conditionality, ADNOC supply hit, Trump Sunday escalation rhetoric - all push the joint-AND invalidation (durable peace + Fed credibility restored + deficit declining) further from firing. No upward revision because gold has already absorbed substantial debasement narrative; ceiling now depends on monetary-policy + fiscal trajectories more than incremental geopolitics.

Held at 0.85. No new AI/semis news this refresh; weekend was geopolitics-dominated. NVDA May 20 print remains the next material datapoint.

Held at 0.75. No new price action (markets closed). Sentiment-vs-price divergence widened slightly with the NY Fed SOCE adding to the consumer-side stagflation read, but neither leg of the OrCondition invalidation is close to firing. Sunday futures open at 22:00 UTC will provide the first market read; expect a more meaningful confidence move tomorrow once cash session has digested the weekend.

Held at 0.50. No new Sunday Senate news; cloture timing locked Monday 5:30 PM ET. CPI consensus drifting hot (3.5-3.9% range) into Powell-still-chair Tuesday print sets up a tougher inheritance for Warsh - June 16-17 FOMC is his first chair meeting and the inflation framing he inherits is now more elevated than 1.0.5 captured. The post-confirmation risk-premium thesis still depends on Warsh's June FOMC framing, not on procedural mechanics that are now locked.

Up to 0.75 from 0.72. May 7-8 escalation reinforces the procurement-cycle case: Iran fired on three US destroyers in the strait Thursday, UAE absorbed missile + drone attacks Friday (3 wounded; biggest escalation since the ceasefire began), US disabled two Iranian tankers and sank seven small Iranian boats. Active kinetic operations ongoing inside a "ceasefire" - munitions consumption rate is non-trivial. Even if the diplomatic track lands a deal this month, the replenishment + Golden Dome obligations are committed.

Up to 0.45 from 0.30 - the 1.0.4 cut was a mistake. Saturday weighted the Qatar LNG transit and the IRGC "safe transit" commitment as the durable-Hormuz-reopening leg of the SequencedCondition firing. Re-reading the May 7-8 record inverts that: the US is still firing on Iranian shipping, Iran is still firing on US Navy assets and on UAE territory, 1,550+ vessels remain trapped in the Gulf, analysts say full pre-war flow is "months if not years" away. The Qatar LNG transit is real but partial. The Hormuz reopening trajectory is closer to "just barely begun" than "durable" - 1.0.4 was too dovish on the binary; correcting to a level that reflects active kinetic operations alongside diplomatic talks.

Up to 0.65 from 0.60. UMich preliminary May sentiment hit a fresh record low (48.2), driven explicitly by gas prices ($4.54 national avg, +44% YoY) and tariffs - direct stagflation-pattern read on the consumer side. Year-ahead inflation expectations 4.5% (down a tick from 4.7% but elevated). Tuesday's April CPI is the inflection - if it prints above the 3.3% March headline with energy contributing, the energy-shock-to-inflation transmission is confirmed and the stagflation case strengthens further. April NFP soft (115K, AHE +3.6%) cuts the wage-pressure leg slightly but the sentiment + energy + Fed-pressure combination dominates.

Up to 0.85 from 0.82. The 1.0.4 step-down was predicated on the Hormuz first-vessel transit and 48-hour Iran-deal response window making the durable-peace leg of the AndCondition invalidation closer. With the May 7-8 record (US-Iran fire exchange, UAE missile attack), durable peace is materially further away again. Gold $4,720-$4,740 Friday is the highest since April 22 and confirms the bid even as Brent retreated weekly. Reverting to 0.85; the joint-AND invalidation (durable peace + Fed credibility restored + deficit declining) requires three hard things simultaneously and the durable-peace leg just walked back.

Held at 0.85 from 0.85. NVDA's May 20 guidance ($78B Q1 FY2027 revenue, +77% YoY, China DC explicitly zero) was set after the AMD print and reaffirms the capex thesis without embedding any China optionality. Huang's "$50B Chinese market effectively gone with no clear return timeline" framing makes the China-decoupling tail explicit and accepted - which paradoxically de-risks the thesis since it's already priced. NVDA stock has pulled back into the May 20 print on no new news; the actual print is the next material datapoint.

Down to 0.75 from 0.78. The price action is unambiguously melt-up (SPX ATH on a six-week run). Sunday futures session opens 22:00 UTC and will be the first read on whether the May 7-8 escalation has any market impact at all. But the sentiment-vs-price divergence widened sharply this week - UMich record low 48.2 with one-third of consumers spontaneously citing gas prices means the consumer side of the economy is running visibly hot inflation perceptions while equity markets price a clean ceasefire and AI-led earnings tailwind. That gap is the recession-risk leg. Stepping confidence down slightly to register the divergence; not flipping toward the vol-expansion invalidation since neither leg is even close to firing.

Held at 0.50. Cloture timing locked (Monday 5:30 PM ET); Fetterman support confirmed; Tillis hold lifted; 53-seat Republican majority makes confirmation procedurally near-certain. The 1.0.4 step-down to 0.50 captured the binary collapse correctly - what remains is the "what does Warsh do once confirmed" risk premium. Tuesday's April CPI prints under the transition gaze (Powell still in chair through Friday) and will establish the inherited inflation framing. June 16-17 FOMC is Warsh's first chair meeting.

Down to 0.72 from 0.75. Iran-deal mechanics now have a concrete 48-hour response window on the 14-point MOU, and Hormuz first-vessel transit firing materially increases the political odds of the wider Iran-deal landing. Procurement-cycle thesis remains decoupled from peace by design (committed backlogs at LMT $194B and RTX $271B are multi-year), but the easier and faster the diplomatic resolution becomes, the more political risk to FY2027 Pentagon outlay growth as the post-war drawdown narrative gets ammunition.

Stepped down from 0.40 to 0.30. The SequencedCondition first leg (durable Hormuz reopening) materially started firing this morning - the Qatar LNG tanker began transiting the strait, the first vessel movement since the conflict, with IRGC navy publicly committing to "safe and sustainable transit facilitated" under new procedures. This is not yet "durable" reopening (1,550+ vessels still trapped, full pre-war flow analysts say is months/years away), but the binary state of "is Hormuz open" flipped today. WTI prints Monday will be the first market reaction; if WTI drops below $80 and stays for 30 days, the OrCondition fires and this thesis invalidates.

Stepped down from 0.65 to 0.60 on the May 8 NFP print (115K vs 185K March, AHE +3.6% YoY vs +3.8% expected). Soft labor and easing wage pressure relax the stagflation case on the inflation side; 10y eased to 4.38%. Fed-independence side intact - Warsh full-Senate vote Monday May 11.

Down to 0.82 from 0.85. The Hormuz first-vessel transit and 48-hour Iran-deal response window mean the durable-peace leg of the AndCondition invalidation has its first concrete near-term path. Still requires Fed-credibility-restored AND deficit-trajectory-reversal to fire (both far away), so the thesis is structurally robust - but the durable-peace leg getting closer reduces the joint probability of all three remaining far simultaneously. Mon WTI/gold prints will be informative.

Up to 0.85 from 0.75. The AMD Q1 print and Q2 guide held through the next trading day; data-center momentum is corroborated and not a one-print event. Only surviving invalidation path is China export-control extension (the named tail). NVDA Q1 FY2027 prints May 20 - the next material datapoint.

Up to 0.78 from 0.75. Six straight winning weeks for SPX (+2.3% week, +0.84% Friday closing 7,398.93) and Nasdaq (+4.5% week, +1.71% Friday closing 26,247.08) - both closing at fresh ATHs - extends the melt-up confirmation past a single-print read. VIX 17.08 keeps the vol-break leg of invalidation comfortably distant.

Stepped down from 0.55 to 0.50. Cloture timing is now specific (Monday 5:30 PM ET) and Fetterman's yes signal makes the vote outcome a near-certainty rather than a contested event - the binary "does Warsh get confirmed" risk collapses, leaving only the "what does Warsh do once confirmed" risk premium. That second part is what the next 30 days price.

Down to 0.75 from 0.78. Iran reviewing a specific one-page peace memorandum is materially more concrete than the May 6 "great progress" framing. Procurement-cycle thesis remains decoupled from peace by design (committed backlogs at LMT $194B and RTX $271B are multi-year), but the easier diplomatic resolution becomes, the more political risk to FY2027 Pentagon outlay growth.

Stepped down from 0.45 to 0.40. Iran reviewing the specific one-page memo (declares end-of-conflict, triggers a 30-day window for nuclear-moratorium / asset-unfreeze / Hormuz-security to land) is materially more concrete than the prior "great progress" framing. WTI flat at $95.46 still leaves the thesis above its $80 invalidation threshold, but the SequencedCondition first leg (durable Hormuz reopening) is closer than at any point since the war began.

Stepped down from 0.65 to 0.60 on the May 8 NFP print (115K vs 185K March, AHE +3.6% YoY vs +3.8% expected). Soft labor and easing wage pressure relax the stagflation case on the inflation side; 10y eased to 4.38%. Fed-independence side intact - Warsh full-Senate vote Monday May 11.

Steady at 0.85. Three structural drivers (durable peace, Fed credibility restored, deficit declining) are all dependencies that have not moved meaningfully. Holding above $4,700 despite oil retreat is itself confirming evidence.

Up to 0.85 from 0.75. The AMD Q1 print and Q2 guide held through the next trading day; data-center momentum is corroborated and not a one-print event. Only surviving invalidation path is China export-control extension (the named tail). NVDA Q1 FY2027 prints May 20 - the next material datapoint.

Up to 0.78 from 0.75. Six straight winning weeks for SPX (+2.3% week, +0.84% Friday closing 7,398.93) and Nasdaq (+4.5% week, +1.71% Friday closing 26,247.08) - both closing at fresh ATHs - extends the melt-up confirmation past a single-print read. VIX 17.08 keeps the vol-break leg of invalidation comfortably distant.

Stepped down from 0.55 to 0.50. Cloture timing is now specific (Monday 5:30 PM ET) and Fetterman's yes signal makes the vote outcome a near-certainty rather than a contested event - the binary "does Warsh get confirmed" risk collapses, leaving only the "what does Warsh do once confirmed" risk premium. That second part is what the next 30 days price.

Up to 0.78 from 0.75. Trump pause of Project Freedom on May 6 citing "great progress" toward complete agreement signals more peace momentum, but procurement-cycle thesis is decoupled from diplomatic resolution by design - committed backlogs (LMT $194B, RTX $271B) are multi-year delivery commitments unaffected by peace.

Stepped down from 0.5 last refresh - oil has now traded below the $100 baseline for a sustained interval, the ceasefire holds, and the MOU framework progresses. Still above the invalidation threshold of $80 and the 30-day persistence window has not started.

Stepped down from 0.65 to 0.60 on the May 8 NFP print (115K vs 185K March, AHE +3.6% YoY vs +3.8% expected). Soft labor and easing wage pressure relax the stagflation case on the inflation side; 10y eased to 4.38%. Fed-independence side intact - Warsh full-Senate vote Monday May 11.

Steady at 0.85. Three structural drivers (durable peace, Fed credibility restored, deficit declining) are all dependencies that have not moved meaningfully. Holding above $4,700 despite oil retreat is itself confirming evidence.

Up to 0.85 from 0.75. The AMD Q1 print and Q2 guide held through the next trading day; data-center momentum is corroborated and not a one-print event. Only surviving invalidation path is China export-control extension (the named tail). NVDA Q1 FY2027 prints May 20 - the next material datapoint.

Stepped up from 0.7 - SPX cleared 7,300 on a sustained basis with new ATH May 8 and VIX still in the 15-20 normal range. The melt-up half of the binary invalidation is closer to satisfied.

Steady at 0.55. Confirmation now days away; transition risk premium is concentrated and front-loaded into next 30 days. Watch first speech and FOMC vote pattern.

Steady at 0.75. AMD Q1 inverted the soft-side invalidation; the only surviving invalidation path is China export-control extension (the named tail). Confirmed-strong state.