Hawkish Warsh regime alignment
Mapping confidence
The skill's conviction in this thesis-to-securities mapping — independent of the thesis's own confidence.
alignmentConfidence rises 0.69 to 0.73 because the event the duration shorts were built to express was delivered: 
a 25bp hike to 3.75-4.00% on a 12-0 vote, 
a median dot of 4.1% for both 2026 and 2027 with no cut before 2028, and 
a chair who says inflation has been too high for too long and that conditions are not restrictive. The curve had already moved - 
the ten-year closed at 5.00%, 
the thirty-year at 5.367%, 
TLT at a new cycle low - so short 
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF firms 0.81 to 0.84 and short 
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF 0.72 to 0.74. The trend-carry legs firm a notch each: a hiking regime is what managed futures harvest, and they now have a confirmed trend to follow. The bands do not tighten as far as the thesis's own did, for a reason the fund stage should carry: 
the long end rallied four basis points on the decision. The thesis is about the regime; the shorts are about the path, and a market that buys duration on a delivered hike is beginning to price the path's end.
Aligned securities
Ranked candidates, highest structural fit first.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Alignment strength
How strongly this security participates if the thesis fully plays out.
Short iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF is the purest expression of 
Hawkish Warsh regime and higher-for-longer and is named in its thesisStatement. Raised 0.81 to 0.84 with the band narrowed 0.07 to 0.06: the hike was delivered, another is projected, and TLT closed 80.71, a new cycle low after the ten-year's first 5% close since 2007. Not raised further because the long end rallied on the decision - the event risk that pushed yields into the meeting is now behind the market. Inverse-expression - the mechanism IS the thesis, taken short.
- aligned security
- iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
- security role
Inverse Expression- allocation direction
Short- alignment strength
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Alignment strength
How strongly this security participates if the thesis fully plays out.
Short iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF captures the intermediate sector, driven by the policy rate rather than term premium. Raised 0.72 to 0.74 alongside the TLT leg: the policy rate is now 3.75-4.00% with a 4.1% median for two years. Kept below TLT because a delivered hike plus one fully projected leaves the belly with less unpriced move than the long end, which is repricing on supply.
- aligned security
- iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
- security role
- Inverse Expression
- allocation direction
- Short
- alignment strength
iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF
Alignment strength
How strongly this security participates if the thesis fully plays out.
Long 
iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF harvests the regime through managed-futures short-rates and commodity sleeves rather than expressing it directly. Raised 0.56 to 0.58: a delivered hike and a ten-year at 5% give trend-following a confirmed direction to follow, which is the condition under which it captures a regime rather than lagging it. Alternate-vehicle with a wide, manager-dependent band.
- aligned security
- iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF
- security role
Alternate Vehicle- allocation direction
Long- alignment strength
KFA Mount Lucas Managed Futures ETF
Alignment strength
How strongly this security participates if the thesis fully plays out.
Long 
KFA Mount Lucas Managed Futures ETF is the second managed-futures sleeve, raised 0.50 to 0.52 with DBMF and ranked last. Near-substitute with a different manager and weighting scheme; retained for manager diversification within the trend-carry leg rather than for distinct thesis exposure. Widest band in the basket.
- aligned security
- KFA Mount Lucas Managed Futures ETF
- security role
- Alternate Vehicle
- allocation direction
- Long
- alignment strength