Central Bank Evidence

The September 2026 Summary of Economic Projections put the median federal funds rate at 4.1% for year-end 2026 - one further quarter-point hike after today's - with twelve of eighteen participants at a 4.125% midpoint, four at 4.375% (two more hikes) and only two at 3.875% (no further change). The 2027 median is also 4.1%, 2028 is 3.9% and the longer run 3.2%, so no cut is projected for fifteen months. Median PCE inflation is 3.7% for 2026 and 2.3% for 2027, core PCE 3.4% and 2.5%, unemployment 4.1% in both years and real GDP growth 2.3% and 2.4%. Chair Warsh again withheld his own dot.

Provenance — node opacity = source trust
Evidence Strength
Strong
Evidence Observed At
Sep 16, 2026 · 6:00 PM UTC
Citation
https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/fomcprojtabl20260916.htm
Citation Source
fed-press
Central Bank
Federal Open Market Committee
Meeting Date
Sep 16, 2026