September 2026 core PCE inflation, released October 29, rose 3.1% year-over-year from 3.0% in August, in line with consensus, with a 0.32% monthly gain against 0.30% expected; headline PCE rose to 3.6% from 3.4%. The Fed's own September projection is 3.4% core for 2026. The invalidation indicator moved a tenth away from its 2.5% threshold, the day after the hold.