TLT made a new cycle low of 77.11 on October 5 2026, 2.9% below its September 24 close of 79.42, and closed October 14 at 78.89 (-0.7% on the window); IEF closed 89.71, flat against 89.69, after a 88.92 low on October 5. The long end did the work - the belly, which carries the October-versus-December rate question, ended unchanged.