Economic Data Evidence

September 2026 nonfarm payrolls rose 29,000 against a consensus of roughly 84,000, and the unemployment rate rose to 4.2% from 4.1%. July was revised to a loss of 10,000 from a gain of 21,000 and August to 133,000 from 162,000, leaving the two months 60,000 lower than previously reported. Average hourly earnings rose 0.1% to $37.81, up 3.0% on the year - below the 3.4% CPI of the prior month, so real wages fell again - and participation was 61.8%. The unemployment rate has held between 4.1% and 4.3% since March.

Provenance — node opacity = source trust
Evidence Strength
Strong
Evidence Observed At
Oct 2, 2026 · 12:30 PM UTC
Citation
https://www.bls.gov/news.release/empsit.nr0.htm
Citation Source
bls-press
Indicator
US Unemployment Rate
Indicator Value
4.2
Indicator Period
September 2026