Market-implied odds of an October 28 rate hike fell to about 35% on September 30 2026 from roughly 70% at the start of the week, after Williams's no-urgency remarks and a softer core PCE. Odds fell further after the weak September payroll report and were reported near 19% by October 7, then rebounded to roughly one in three - CME estimates swung between about 32% and 50% during the session - on the hot September CPI of October 14. A December hike remained priced as likely throughout. The second hike has moved from October-likely to December-likely without leaving the curve.