August 2026 PCE inflation, released September 30, rose 3.4% year-over-year against a 3.7% consensus, and core PCE rose 3.0% against 3.3% expected, with core up 0.2% on the month against 0.3%. The release carried the BEA's annual methodology update for software, legal-services and investment-advice prices, retroactive to 2021; Capital Economics estimated it took about 0.3 percentage points off core inflation, and the revisions put the three-month annualised core rate at precisely 2%. CME FedWatch odds of an October hike fell to about 35% on the release.