Markets priced a 66% probability of a further quarter-point Fed increase at the October meeting as of the September 23 2026 close, after Barr's remarks and a hot flash PMI, and Trading Economics put the odds near 70% by the morning of September 25 with roughly three more quarter-point increases priced over the next year. Goldman Sachs and Bank of America both added an October hike to their forecasts, Bank of America also expecting a move in December. The front end is now pricing the second hike of the cycle as more likely than not within six weeks of the first.