CME FedWatch put the probability of a 25 basis point hike at the September 16 FOMC at 60.6% on September 8, up from 57.5% immediately after the Jackson Hole keynote and 44.4% on August 7. Prediction markets stayed nearer even, with Kalshi at 48% and Polymarket at 49%, so the futures market is more hawkish than the crowd.
Provenance — node opacity = source trust
- Evidence Strength
Moderate- Evidence Observed At
- Sep 8, 2026 · 12:00 PM UTC
- Citation
- https://www.fool.com/investing/2026/09/10/the-odds-of-a-rate-hike-are-soaring-ahead-of-the-sept-16-fomc-meeting/
- Citation Source
The Motley Fool- Market Metric
Rate Path Expectations- Observed Value
- 0.606