Immediately after the Jackson Hole keynote the CME FedWatch tool showed a 57.5% probability that the Committee raises the federal funds rate by 25 basis points on September 16, up from 35.4% a day earlier - a 22-point single-session repricing that turned the September decision into a coin flip. The repricing extended into September, with fed funds futures showing roughly two-thirds odds by September 1 while prediction markets stayed nearer even.