Mean held at 0.90; band widened 0.04 to 0.05. This is the first refresh in which the thesis's two legs moved in opposite directions within a single window, and the band is where that shows. The inflation leg strengthened materially - headline PPI at 5.4% year-over-year, up from 4.8% in July, diesel up 24.1% in one month and driving over a third of the goods increase, and ISM Services prices at 72.6, the highest since 2022. The growth leg moved the other way and did so convincingly: payrolls rebounded to +162,000 against a +53,000 consensus with 55,000 of upward revisions to the prior two months, and services PMI expanded at 55.4 with new orders at 60.9. The residual stag signals are narrow but real - the services employment index is still contracting at 47.8 and wage growth of 3.1% trails a 3.4% CPI consensus, so real wages are negative. A persistent-inflation call is what this thesis keeps being; the widened band is the honest statement that its stagflation framing is now contested by its own growth data rather than merely unconfirmed by it.

April CPI on May 12 fired the energy-passthrough binary tell directly: headline 3.8% YoY (highest since May 2023), core 2.8% YoY. April PPI on May 13 ran hotter than CPI - headline +1.4% m/m / +6.0% YoY, core +1.0% m/m / +5.2% YoY (highest in three years). April import prices on May 14 added +1.9% m/m / +4.2% YoY (largest YoY since October 2022) with imported fuel +16.3% m/m. Friday May 15 delivered the sharpest single-session rate-path repricing of the cycle: oil +4.5% (WTI to $106, weekly +11%), the 10Y to 4.59% (up ~13bps in one day, fresh ~1-year high, biggest weekly yield jump since April 2025), and CME FedWatch hike-by-December odds to ~56% from ~36% Thursday and ~16% a week earlier - a 20pp single-day move. Monday May 18 cash session closed 10Y at 4.601% (vs 4.59% Friday) on the strike-cancellation tactical pullback; Tuesday May 19 closed 10Y at 4.62% (intraday high 4.67%, "Treasurys take off"), the rate-path repricing reasserting after the Friday spike. Global yields still at multi-year highs (German bund 15-year high, JGB 10Y 29-year high). Calendar: April 29 FOMC minutes Wednesday May 20 2 PM ET, Walmart Q1 FY2027 Thursday May 21 pre-open with tariff-passthrough lens, April PCE the formal invalidation indicator on May 28. Update May 20: the April 29 FOMC minutes released Wednesday read hawkish - officials debating hikes on persistent above-target inflation - and FedWatch hike-by-December odds rose to ~63%, fresh corroboration of the higher-for-longer read even as Wednesday's risk-on session eased yields intraday. Update May 21: Walmart's Q1 FY2027 print delivered a direct tariff-passthrough signal - the CFO warned higher retail prices may hit shelves in coming months - and Treasury yields rebounded Thursday, reversing Wednesday's intraday easing. Update May 22: a tactical disinflation pulse - the 10Y eased back toward ~4.57% Friday, crude slipped back below $100, and December-hike odds came off their post-minutes peak on the revived US-Iran peace optimism - though no new CPI / PPI / PCE print landed and April PCE on May 28 remains the formal invalidation indicator. Update May 25: a quiet Memorial Day weekend added no new inflation print, and weekend energy coverage reinforced structurally elevated oil (Brent ~85% higher YTD with analyst calls for crude to stay high into 2027) - a passthrough tailwind that roughly offsets the Friday tactical-disinflation pulse, leaving the higher-for-longer read intact ahead of the May 28 PCE. Update May 26: a pre-market read after the Memorial Day holiday added no new inflation print - the 10Y eased to ~4.51% extending the Friday disinflation pulse, while the fresh US strikes on Iran kept a passthrough-risk offset in place - leaving the higher-for-longer read intact into the May 28 PCE. Update May 27: the first post-holiday cash close added no new inflation print - the 10Y eased further to ~4.48% Wednesday, its lowest in nearly two weeks, while CME FedWatch hike-by-December odds firmed to ~70% (with ~80% odds of a June/July hold) kept the higher-for-longer read intact ahead of the May 28 PCE. Update May 28: the Wednesday cash close added no new inflation print - the 10Y held near the ~4.48% morning level into the close, the higher-for-longer core intact - and crude tumbled ~5.5% to $88.68 on Rubio's "every chance to succeed" framing, a fresh disinflation tactical pulse; the April PCE print at 8:30 AM ET (consensus 3.8% headline / 3.3% core) is the operative tell nine minutes after observedAt. Update May 29: the print landed in line - headline 3.8% / core 3.3% YoY, both matching consensus, with the monthly pace softening to +0.4% / +0.2% m/m - confirming sticky above-target core without an upside surprise, and the 10Y eased to 4.46% as energy pared its rebound and the interim Iran deal limited the inflation outlook; the core 3.3% remains far from the <2.5%-for-3-months invalidation leg. Update June 1: no new inflation print landed over the Friday-to-Monday window - the higher-for-longer 3.3% core stands - while markets firmed June-hold pricing to ~99.4% and the weekend stall of the US-Iran memorandum (talks formally stalled, blockade enforcement continuing) keeps the energy-passthrough risk two-sided; the rate-path question defers entirely to the June 16-17 FOMC. Update June 2: fresh inflation-persistence corroboration on three fronts - ISM May prices paid printed 82.1, the second-highest reading since April 2022, with 66.3% of manufacturers reporting higher prices alongside a 54.0 headline PMI, the fastest factory expansion since May 2022 - growth holding up while prices refuse to yield; April JOLTS openings rose to 7.6M (labor demand still solid); and the energy-passthrough risk violently re-armed as Iran stopped negotiations and vowed to completely block the Strait of Hormuz and WTI spiked 6%+ above $92 before Trump's truce-and-rapid-pace intervention pared the move. The 10Y rose to ~4.47% Monday on the escalation; June-hold pricing stands at ~98.4%, deferring the rate-path question to the June 16-17 FOMC. Update June 3: a quiet inflation window - no new print landed - while the 10Y eased to ~4.43% Tuesday, its lowest in roughly three weeks, and the energy-passthrough risk stayed two-sided as the US-Iran memorandum sits pending Trump's signature with Tehran yet to respond to his edits while WTI held above $93. The ISM Services PMI (prices-paid lens) lands Wednesday 10 AM ET and the May jobs report Friday - the next inflation reads ahead of the June 16-17 FOMC. Update June 4: the ISM Services print landed hot - the May prices-paid index rose to 71.3%, its highest since August 2022, with all 18 industries reporting higher prices and petroleum newly added to the up-list, a second prices survey (after the 82.1 manufacturing reading) confirming sticky and broadening input costs while growth holds (Services PMI 54.5). Crude held above $95 after Iranian missile strikes on Kuwait and Bahrain kept the energy-passthrough tail live, with Tehran reporting "no progress" on the deal; the May jobs report Friday is the unemployment leg. Update June 5: the May jobs report ran HOT - nonfarm payrolls +172k vs ~80k consensus, unemployment steady 4.3%, prior months revised up +93k - firing no invalidation leg (core PCE 3.3% far from <2.5%; a resilient labor market, not the sub-trend-growth pairing) while pushing the rate-path pillar harder: the 10Y jumped to 4.55% and hike-by-December odds to ~70%. Update June 11: the mid-June CPI tell landed HOT on the headline - May CPI rose 0.5% m/m to 4.2% YoY, the highest since April 2023, with energy contributing over 60% of the monthly increase and gasoline +7% m/m / +40.5% YoY - the energy-passthrough channel printing directly into the index - while core CPI rose a below-consensus 0.2% m/m to 2.9% YoY, hot headline against a still-contained core. The 10Y climbed to ~4.54% Wednesday (headline CPI now nearly matches the 10Y - long yields are barely positive in real terms) and futures price a ~98% June-17 hold with a 25bp hike by December essentially fully priced. The war's re-escalation to direct Iran-Israel exchanges re-armed the passthrough risk (WTI back toward $91, Brent ~$93). Core 2.9% CPI / 3.3% PCE remains far from the <2.5%-for-3-months invalidation leg; the June 16-17 FOMC and month-end May PCE are the next reads. Update July 2: May PCE core ticked to 3.4% YoY corroborated inflation persistence, but the ~25% oil collapse (WTI below $69) turned the energy-passthrough tailwind into a headwind and the 10Y eased to ~4.4%; growth stayed solid (Q1 GDP revised to +2.1%), so the stag leg is still dormant and the higher-for-longer rate story now sits largely in Hawkish Warsh regime and higher-for-longer. Update September 3: the inflation leg firmed while the growth leg contradicted. August ISM prices paid held at 71.1%, unchanged from July as WTI round-tripped above $90.50, reloading the passthrough channel; but the ISM headline eased to 54.6% on an eighth month of expansion and Warsh described a strengthened economy at 4.1% unemployment. August CPI on September 11 carries the reversed energy base. Update September 10: the two legs split. Inflation strengthened - August PPI 5.4% YoY, up from 4.8%, diesel +24.1% m/m, ISM Services prices 72.6, highest since 2022 - while growth rebounded: payrolls +162,000 vs +53,000 expected, +55,000 in revisions, unemployment steady at 4.1%, services PMI 55.4. The stag half now rests on a contracting services employment index at 47.8 and negative real wages, with earnings +3.1% against a 3.4% CPI consensus. A second inflationary supply shock is forming in trade: Canadian retaliatory tariffs of 15-50% on ~$20B of US goods took effect September 8 and a US import ban on Canadian goods follows on September 29.