snapshots

AI capex sustained but with China decoupling tail riskEquity melt-up versus building recession 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leadership transition policy uncertaintyGold structural debasement bidHawkish Warsh regime and higher-for-longerIran war rearmament cycleMacro worldview (4.0.2 - Thursday September 10 patch - the long end broke through a tripled Treasury buyback with the 30Y at 5.307% and the 10Y at 4.85%, August payrolls rebounded to +162K with +55K of upward revisions, August PPI ran 5.4% YoY on a 24.1% diesel surge while core softened to +0.2%, the Gulf war became a tanker war with Brent above $101, and gold's structural leg refreshed on a record $18B August ETF inflow. No thesis added, retired or invalidated; no invalidation condition fires)Persistent energy premiumStagflation risk and Fed independence stress