snapshots

AI capex sustained but with China decoupling tail riskEquity melt-up versus building recession 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leadership transition policy uncertaintyGold structural debasement bidHawkish Warsh regime and higher-for-longerIran war rearmament cycleMacro worldview (4.0.1 - Thursday September 3 patch - the Jackson Hole tell resolved hawkish and the Gulf war widened. Warsh named PCE as his gauge, called broad financial conditions not restrictive and said the Fed may have work to do, taking September hike odds from 35.4% to 57.5% in a session and the 10Y above 4.81%, its highest since October 2023. The US struck ~100 IRGC targets around Hormuz on September 1 and Iran retaliated against bases in Bahrain, Jordan, Kuwait, Iraq and then the UAE, taking WTI above $90.50 and Brent past $96. Gold gave back most of the August rally to a four-week low near $4,335 as real yields rose. No thesis added, retired or invalidated; no invalidation condition fires)Persistent energy premiumStagflation risk and Fed independence stress