Stepped 0.82 to 0.87 (band 0.05 to 0.04). This is the resolution of the specific uncertainty 4.0.0 reserved for: the prior snapshot deliberately held the thesis below 0.85 because the Jackson Hole keynote landed forty minutes later and could re-rate the regime in either direction. It re-rated in the thesis's favour on every axis - PCE named as the operative gauge, inflation owned outright, broad financial conditions called not restrictive against an economy described as strengthened, and an explicit signal that rates may have to rise. The market's verdict was immediate and large: September hike odds from 35.4% to 57.5% in one session and on toward two-thirds by September 1, with the 10-year at 4.81%, its highest since October 2023. Band tightens because a named binary resolved. Held below 0.90 because the September 16 decision is still a coin flip and a hold framed dovishly would be the first genuine contrary evidence.

Kevin Warsh used his first FOMC (June 16-17 2026) to establish an explicitly hawkish, price-stability-first regime, succeeding the dovish-tilt uncertainty that the retired Fed leadership transition policy uncertainty thesis tracked. The Committee held the target range at 3.50-3.75% on a unanimous 12-0 vote but dropped its easing bias, sharply shortened the statement, and published a dot plot that removed the prior 2026 cut and put a HIKE on the table - nine of eighteen participants see at least one hike this year, six see multiple, only one sees a cut. Warsh withheld his own dot, said "inflation is a choice", and committed the Committee to delivering price stability, deliberately devaluing forward guidance and reorienting the Fed around inflation. The market priced it immediately - the 2-year yield jumped ~16bp on the statement, the 10Y rose to ~4.49% and the 30Y to ~4.93%, and equities posted the worst new-chair Fed-day reaction since 1994. The thesis is that this is a DURABLE regime, not a one-meeting tone: higher-for-longer policy with a live hike bias and no 2026 cut, a steeper-than-priced rate path, and a Fed that tolerates above-target growth and energy inflation rather than easing into it. Update July 2: Warsh reinforced the regime - at the Sintra forum July 1 he emphasized Fed independence, rebuffed calls for cuts, and pledged to deliver price stability, warning against tolerance of above-2% inflation - and markets now price ~66% odds of a December hike in the Fed's own dots, with core PCE at 3.4% validating higher-for-longer. Update September 3: the Jackson Hole keynote resolved hawkish. Warsh said inflation is too high, signalled rates may have to rise, named PCE as the gauge he will act on, and said the better summer prints do not show underlying improvement, and called broad financial conditions not restrictive against a strengthened economy at 4.1% unemployment. September hike odds went 35.4% to 57.5% in a session and on to roughly two-thirds by September 1, with the 10-year at 4.81%, its highest since October 2023, and the 30-year at 5.26%.