The June 16-17 FOMC is Kevin Warsh's first meeting as chair and carries a full Summary of Economic Projections and dot plot. Markets price ~98% odds of a hold at the 3.50-3.75% target range; the watch items are the dot plot (whether the first 2026 cut migrates into 2027), an expected shift from an easing bias to a neutral stance, and Warsh's first press-conference tone - the operative test of the dovish-tilt risk his "room to cut" confirmation framing introduced, now against a 4.2% headline CPI and public presidential pressure against hiking.