Economic Data Evidence

April PCE, released Thursday May 28 at 8:30 AM ET, printed in line with consensus - headline 3.8% YoY (highest since May 2023) and core 3.3% YoY (highest since November 2023) - but the monthly pace softened, headline +0.4% m/m (from +0.7% in March) and core +0.2% m/m (from +0.3%). The formal stagflation invalidation indicator confirmed sticky above-target core without an upside surprise, and the soft monthly read supported a relief rally and a bond bid.

Provenance — node opacity = source trust
Evidence Strength
Strong
Evidence Observed At
May 28, 2026 · 12:30 PM UTC
Citation
https://www.bea.gov/data/personal-consumption-expenditures-price-index-excluding-food-and-energy
Citation Source
bea-press
Indicator
Core PCE YoY
Indicator Value
3.3
Indicator Period
April 2026