IEA May 2026 Oil Market Report forecasts a 1.78 mb/d 2026 supply deficit (sharp reversal from prior expected surplus), with world supply falling 3.9 mb/d in 2026 and Hormuz-affected Gulf countries 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels. The market stays severely undersupplied through Q3 2026 even if Middle East fighting ends by early June.