Market Data Evidence

CME FedWatch shows a ~98.4% probability of no change at the June 16-17 FOMC (only ~0.6% probability of a hike) - the first meeting under Chair Warsh. Forward hike-odds continue building: by April 2027 markets price ~40% odds of a +25bp target and ~22% odds of +50bp, the higher-for-longer repricing intact beneath a settled near-term path.

Provenance — node opacity = source trust
Evidence Strength
Strong
Evidence Observed At
Jun 2, 2026 · 1:00 PM UTC
Citation
https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
Citation Source
cnbc
Market Metric
Rate Path Expectations
Observed Value
0.984