CME FedWatch hike-by-December odds firmed to ~70% as of May 26, up from the ~63% post-minutes level, with markets pricing more than ~80% odds the FOMC leaves rates unchanged at the June and July meetings - the higher-for-longer repricing intact even as the 10Y eased tactically.
Provenance — node opacity = source trust
- Evidence Strength
Moderate
- Evidence Observed At
- May 26, 2026 · 8:00 PM UTC
- Citation
- https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
- Citation Source
cnbc
- Market Metric
Rate Path Expectations
- Observed Value
- 0.7