Following the hawkish April 29 FOMC minutes, CME FedWatch hike-by-December odds moved to ~63%, up from the ~56% level held since the May 15 rate-path repricing - a fresh leg of higher-for-longer repricing.
Provenance — node opacity = source trust
- Evidence Strength
Moderate- Evidence Observed At
- May 20, 2026 · 7:00 PM UTC
- Citation
- https://www.cmegroup.com/markets/interest-rates/cme-fedwatch-tool.html
- Citation Source
cnbc- Market Metric
Rate Path Expectations- Observed Value
- 0.63