Macro worldview (2.1.10 - Tuesday May 26 pre-market refresh after the Memorial Day holiday - fresh US self-defense strikes on Iranian mine-laying boats and missile sites near Hormuz test the ceasefire while a 60-day framework to de-mine and reopen the Strait emerges, risk-on futures lead the cash reopen, oil splits Brent-up / WTI-down, gold firms, the 10Y eases to ~4.51%, and Warsh's reform-oriented first remarks surface)

2.1.10 refresh, ~18 hours after 2.1.9 - the window runs from the Monday May 25 Memorial Day timestamp through ~6:57 AM ET Tuesday May 26, pre-market and ahead of the post-holiday cash reopen. There is no new cash close to integrate (a holiday Massive /prev still returns the Friday May 22 session), so this is a pre-session read built on overnight developments, Tuesday index futures, and Monday spot moves. Net arc: the holiday was not quiet - the US conducted fresh kinetic strikes on Iran even as a more concrete 60-day ceasefire framework emerged; the two war-linked theses step marginally up on the kinetic re-engagement, equities lead risk-on into the reopen, oil splits Brent-up / WTI-down, gold firms, the 10Y eases, and Warsh's first remarks as chair finally landed.

Fresh US strikes test the ceasefire. CENTCOM conducted "self-defense" strikes Monday May 25 near Bandar Abbas - hitting Iranian boats attempting to lay mines in the Strait of Hormuz plus missile launch sites, after Iranian attacks on US Navy destroyers transiting the strait - while insisting it was "using restraint during the ongoing ceasefire" with no announced change to the April 8 truce. President Trump said talks were "proceeding nicely" but warned it would be "a Great Deal for all or, no Deal at all," threatening to go "Back to the Battlefront ... bigger and stronger than ever before". Iran war rearmament cycle steps 0.86 to 0.87: the kinetic re-engagement and the on-the-record battlefront threat firm the multi-year procurement tail, while invalidation still requires durable peace IMPLEMENTED plus two quarters of declining DoD outlays - active strikes are the opposite.

A 60-day framework, but unimplemented. A framework extending the ceasefire 60 days toward a final deal - with the Strait of Hormuz to be de-mined and reopened is more concrete than the 2.1.9 leaked draft, and the de-mining/reopening commitment is the first explicit move toward the durable-Hormuz-reopening leg of the Persistent energy premium invalidation SequencedCondition. But it is unimplemented and the same-day strikes underline its fragility, so the energy thesis holds at 0.72 +/- 0.06: Brent firmed +2.78% to $98.81 on the strikes while WTI fell 4.42% to $92.33 on deal optimism - the structural-vs-tactical split the band captures, with the IEA summer "red zone" read intact.

Risk-on into the reopen. Equity melt-up versus building recession risk steps 0.71 to 0.72: S&P 500 futures ran +0.78%, Nasdaq-100 +1.14%, and Dow futures +371 points into the post-holiday cash reopen on deal optimism, extending the Friday Dow-record rebound. These are futures, not a close, and neither invalidation leg moved - no vol-expansion break, and VIX (plan-restricted on the feed) is nowhere near the <15 melt-up-confirmation leg - with breadth still concentrated in mega-cap AI.

Gold firms; rates ease; AI quiet. Gold structural debasement bid holds at 0.85 +/- 0.05: spot gold advanced 1.18% to $4,562.69 Monday on dollar softness and a safe-haven bid amid the strikes, recovering the Friday give-back with structural-bull supports unchanged. Stagflation risk and Fed independence stress holds at 0.83 +/- 0.04: the 10Y eased to ~4.51%, extending the Friday tactical-disinflation pulse, but no new CPI / PPI / PCE landed and the strikes are a passthrough-risk offset - April PCE on May 28 remains the formal invalidation indicator. AI capex sustained but with China decoupling tail risk holds at 0.86 +/- 0.04 with no new demand or capex signal over the holiday and the China export-control tail unchanged.

Warsh's first remarks landed. Fed leadership transition policy uncertainty holds at 0.51 with the band tightening to 0.09: in his first remarks as chair Warsh pledged a "reform-oriented Federal Reserve ... escaping static frameworks and models," cited Greenspan as a model, and stressed the dual mandate pursued with "independence and resolve" - reform-flavored but anodyne on near-term policy, resolving the "what will he say" uncertainty without resolving the contradiction between his "room to cut" framing and the inherited higher-for-longer backdrop. The first substantive policy test is the June 16-17 FOMC.

Catalyst calendar from here. Tuesday May 26 cash close - the first post-holiday session; whether the 60-day framework is signed or the strikes escalate; whether the Strait de-mining begins. Thu May 28 8:30 AM ET April PCE - the formal stagflation-thesis invalidation indicator. June 16-17 first Warsh-as-chair FOMC.