Thesis Alignment

AI capex cycle alignment

Mapping confidence

The skill's conviction in this thesis-to-securities mapping — independent of the thesis's own confidence.

μ 0.8601
Beta(40.6, 6.6)

Membership unchanged; alignmentConfidence eases 0.88 to 0.86 and the band widens because the vehicles' link to the thesis's fundamentals is now mediated by the cost of capital. NVDA fell 5.5% and AVGO 7.6% from September 2 and AMD 3.2% from September 9 with no company-specific news, into a 5.00% ten-year - the coupling to the duration shorts that 2.0.2 flagged, now visible in price. Four of five legs are marked down a point or two on that basis. The exception runs the other way: Oracle rises 0.80 to 0.82 on the densest new evidence in the basket - cloud infrastructure revenue up 121% to $7.4B, remaining performance obligations of $664B, fiscal-2027 revenue guided to at least $90B - while its band widens 0.07 to 0.08 on $28B of quarterly capex, negative free cash flow and a $20B equity raise and a 7% fall on the beat. That is the basket in miniature: the thesis's demand claim was never better evidenced, and the market paid less for it. Rank order is unchanged; NVDA keeps primary on liquidity and attribution.

Aligned securities

Ranked candidates, highest structural fit first.

NVIDIA

Alignment strength

How strongly this security participates if the thesis fully plays out.

μ 0.9001
Beta(49.7, 5.5)

Thirty-four evidence mentions, the densest attribution in the basket. Eased 0.91 to 0.90 with the band widened 0.03 to 0.04 on a close at 212.17, down 5.5% from September 2, including a 3.4% fall on September 14 with no franchise-specific news - the stock traded the rate, not the cycle. Primary-vehicle retained on liquidity, attribution and pace-setting for the complex.

aligned security
NVIDIA
security role
Primary Vehicle
allocation direction
Long
alignment strength
Mean
0.9
Standard Deviation
0.04
Beta Alpha
49.7
Beta Beta
5.5

Advanced Micro Devices

Alignment strength

How strongly this security participates if the thesis fully plays out.

μ 0.8901
Beta(53.6, 6.6)

Eased 0.90 to 0.89. The $70B 2027 data-center guide stands and nothing contradicted it, but the stock gave back 3.2% of its 14% window gain on no news. Twenty-one evidence mentions. Still within a point of NVDA - the basket remains a basket.

aligned security
Advanced Micro Devices
security role
Alternate Vehicle
allocation direction
Long
alignment strength
Mean
0.89
Standard Deviation
0.04
Beta Alpha
53.6
Beta Beta
6.6

Broadcom

Alignment strength

How strongly this security participates if the thesis fully plays out.

μ 0.8701
Beta(38.5, 5.7)

Eased 0.88 to 0.87. The multi-year AI revenue outline is the longest forward visibility in the basket, but AVGO closed 339.27, down 7.6% from September 2 - the largest decline of any leg here, extending the sell-the-beat reaction of September 3. Custom-accelerator exposure still diversifies the basket away from merchant GPU.

aligned security
Broadcom
security role
Alternate Vehicle
allocation direction
Long
alignment strength
Mean
0.87
Standard Deviation
0.05
Beta Alpha
38.5
Beta Beta
5.7

Oracle

Alignment strength

How strongly this security participates if the thesis fully plays out.

μ 0.8201
Beta(18.1, 4)

Raised 0.80 to 0.82 with the band widened 0.07 to 0.08 - a deliberate pairing. Three new evidence mentions, the most of any leg this window: cloud infrastructure revenue up 121% with 300,000-plus GPUs deployed at 97.9% utilisation and $664B of RPO is the capex-consumer end of the cycle confirming demand in the most direct form available. But the build is now funded by a $20B equity raise on top of negative free cash flow and the market sold the beat 7%. This is the leg most exposed to a 5% ten-year, and the wider band says so.

aligned security
Oracle
security role
Alternate Vehicle
allocation direction
Long
alignment strength
Mean
0.82
Standard Deviation
0.08
Beta Alpha
18.1
Beta Beta
4

Intel Corporation

Alignment strength

How strongly this security participates if the thesis fully plays out.

μ 0.6601
Beta(17.6, 9.1)

Eased 0.68 to 0.66 with the band widened. High-beta-proxy where AI-cycle participation is optionality rather than delivered revenue; in a window where the whole complex sold off on rates, a name with no franchise-specific evidence and the highest beta is the weakest fit. Kept at the bottom of the basket.

aligned security
Intel Corporation
security role
High-Beta Proxy
allocation direction
Long
alignment strength
Mean
0.66
Standard Deviation
0.09
Beta Alpha
17.6
Beta Beta
9.1