AI capex cycle alignment
Mapping confidence
The skill's conviction in this thesis-to-securities mapping — independent of the thesis's own confidence.
Membership unchanged; alignmentConfidence eases 0.88 to 0.86 and the band widens because the vehicles' link to the thesis's fundamentals is now mediated by the cost of capital. NVDA fell 5.5% and AVGO 7.6% from September 2 and AMD 3.2% from September 9 with no company-specific news, into
a 5.00% ten-year - the coupling to the duration shorts that 2.0.2 flagged, now visible in price. Four of five legs are marked down a point or two on that basis. The exception runs the other way:
Oracle rises 0.80 to 0.82 on
the densest new evidence in the basket - cloud infrastructure revenue up 121% to $7.4B, remaining performance obligations of $664B, fiscal-2027 revenue guided to at least $90B - while its band widens 0.07 to 0.08 on
$28B of quarterly capex, negative free cash flow and a $20B equity raise and
a 7% fall on the beat. That is the basket in miniature: the thesis's demand claim was never better evidenced, and the market paid less for it. Rank order is unchanged; NVDA keeps primary on liquidity and attribution.
Aligned securities
Ranked candidates, highest structural fit first.