Stepped 0.76 to 0.82 (band 0.06 to 0.05). The July 29 FOMC was the regime's first real test and it resolved hawkish from the committee rather than the chair: a 9-3 hold with three dissents favouring a HIKE, a deliberately short statement and no roadmap. The market's verdict was unambiguous - the worst Dow session in over a year and a 30Y at its highest since 2007, extending into a global rout that forced Treasury to double its long-bond buybacks. Band tightens on the accumulating confirmation. Held below 0.85 because Warsh's Jackson Hole keynote lands forty minutes after this snapshot and could re-rate the regime read in either direction.

Kevin Warsh used his first FOMC (June 16-17 2026) to establish an explicitly hawkish, price-stability-first regime, succeeding the dovish-tilt uncertainty that the retired Fed leadership transition policy uncertainty thesis tracked. The Committee held the target range at 3.50-3.75% on a unanimous 12-0 vote but dropped its easing bias, sharply shortened the statement, and published a dot plot that removed the prior 2026 cut and put a HIKE on the table - nine of eighteen participants see at least one hike this year, six see multiple, only one sees a cut. Warsh withheld his own dot, said "inflation is a choice", and committed the Committee to delivering price stability, deliberately devaluing forward guidance and reorienting the Fed around inflation. The market priced it immediately - the 2-year yield jumped ~16bp on the statement, the 10Y rose to ~4.49% and the 30Y to ~4.93%, and equities posted the worst new-chair Fed-day reaction since 1994. The thesis is that this is a DURABLE regime, not a one-meeting tone: higher-for-longer policy with a live hike bias and no 2026 cut, a steeper-than-priced rate path, and a Fed that tolerates above-target growth and energy inflation rather than easing into it. Update July 2: Warsh reinforced the regime - at the Sintra forum July 1 he emphasized Fed independence, rebuffed calls for cuts, and pledged to deliver price stability, warning against tolerance of above-2% inflation - and markets now price ~66% odds of a December hike in the Fed's own dots, with core PCE at 3.4% validating higher-for-longer.