Opened at 0.72 ± 0.07 in 3.0.0 (June 18), the successor to the retired Fed leadership transition policy uncertainty. The mean is high for a new thesis because the founding event was decisive and unambiguous: a unanimous hold with a hike-biased dot plot and dropped easing bias, an on-the-record price-stability commitment, and the worst new-chair Fed-day equity reaction since 1994 confirming the market read it as hawkish. The 0.07 width (not tighter) reflects that one meeting does not prove a durable regime - a single soft CPI/PCE sequence or a growth scare could pull the no-cut dots back toward easing, which is exactly the invalidation leg. Beta(27, 10.5) ~38 effective observations. The horizon is a macro-regime 9-12 months: the no-cut stance gets re-tested at every meeting through the next two inflation cycles.

Kevin Warsh used his first FOMC (June 16-17 2026) to establish an explicitly hawkish, price-stability-first regime, succeeding the dovish-tilt uncertainty that the retired Fed leadership transition policy uncertainty thesis tracked. The Committee held the target range at 3.50-3.75% on a unanimous 12-0 vote but dropped its easing bias, sharply shortened the statement, and published a dot plot that removed the prior 2026 cut and put a HIKE on the table - nine of eighteen participants see at least one hike this year, six see multiple, only one sees a cut. Warsh withheld his own dot, said "inflation is a choice", and committed the Committee to delivering price stability, deliberately devaluing forward guidance and reorienting the Fed around inflation. The market priced it immediately - the 2-year yield jumped ~16bp on the statement, the 10Y rose to ~4.49% and the 30Y to ~4.93%, and equities posted the worst new-chair Fed-day reaction since 1994. The thesis is that this is a DURABLE regime, not a one-meeting tone: higher-for-longer policy with a live hike bias and no 2026 cut, a steeper-than-priced rate path, and a Fed that tolerates above-target growth and energy inflation rather than easing into it.