Held at 0.87 ± 0.04 (from 2.2.1). The window's fresh escalation - Iranian missile and drone strikes on US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, with US self-defense strikes on Qeshm Island in response - reinforces the multi-year-conflict premise, and Araghchi's "no progress" pushes the durable-peace leg further away, not closer. The defense tape only drifted (LMT -0.3%, RTX -1.0%, NOC -2.0%) on the broad risk-off day - noise, not a procurement-bid break. The invalidation still requires durable peace IMPLEMENTED plus two quarters of DECLINING DoD outlays, against a budget topline proposed UP to $1.5T. Mean and width held. Beta(34.8, 5.2) ~40 effective observations. The horizon is the longest in the worldview: a procurement cycle takes fiscal years to test.

The US-Iran war that began Feb 28 2026 (Operation Epic Fury) triggered a multi-year defense spending cycle that benefits prime contractors with missile and missile-defense exposure regardless of diplomatic-track outcomes. Defense primes rallied materially on the Monday May 18 cash session in confirmation of the procurement-cycle reading - LMT closed 528.31 (+2.38%), RTX 175.95 (+2.78%), NOC 550.00 (+1.72%). The Monday evening Axios reporting flipped the diplomatic-track signal: the White House formally REJECTED Iran's 14-point proposal as "insufficient", citing inadequate commitments to halting uranium enrichment; a senior US official told Axios the "next conversation is through bombs"; Trump is expected to meet his top national security advisers Tuesday May 19 to discuss "breaking the ceasefire with Iran." This is structurally bullish for the multi-year procurement-cycle tail - the rejection is public, on-the-record, and explicit about kinetic-option re-engagement. Sunday Barakah drone strike on the UAE nuclear plant remains unattributed (Iran has not claimed responsibility; UAE Defense Ministry confirms 3 drones from Saudi border, 2 intercepted; UAE formal statement did not name Iran). Iran's 14-point proposal substance remains public: 30-day war end, US-forces withdrawal, naval-blockade end, asset unfreezing, reparations, sanctions lift, end-of-fighting in Lebanon, new Hormuz mechanism. Depleted munitions stockpiles (438 Iranian ballistic missiles, 2,012 drones, 19 cruise missiles fired at UAE through April 1) and Golden Dome ($185B) are committed multi-year programs that survive any near-term deal scenario. Tuesday-morning defense complex repricing on the rejection news is the operative test of the procurement-cycle structural read. That test came in muted, not bullish - LMT 526.63 (-0.32%), RTX 174.49 (-0.83%), NOC 556.34 (+1.15%) - and the legislative track tilted toward de-escalation: the Senate advanced Kaine's war-powers resolution 50-47 (Cassidy, Paul, Murkowski, Collins crossing) directing US withdrawal from Iran hostilities, and Trump postponed an "an hour away" Tuesday strike after Gulf-leader appeals. The resolution is veto-bound and the multi-year backlog (LMT $194B, RTX $271B) is unchanged. Update May 20: the de-escalation continued - talks entered final stages and ships began transiting Hormuz - and the defense complex softened (LMT 522.59 -0.77%, NOC 552.17 -0.75%, RTX 174.85 flat), but the procurement backlog is robust to a deal still short of implementation. Update May 21: the de-escalation tilt partly reversed - optimism over a US-Iran agreement faded and crude reclaimed $100 - firming the multi-year procurement-cycle tail. Update May 22: the diplomatic tilt swung back toward de-escalation as a leaked "final draft" US-Iran ceasefire revived peace optimism and crude eased back below $100; the draft is unconfirmed and unimplemented, and Thursday defense closes were essentially flat (LMT 522.79, RTX 175.98, NOC 551.58) - the procurement bid steady. Update May 25: the leaked draft did NOT convert to a formal announcement over the May 23-25 holiday weekend (the "within hours" claim failed to materialize), and the procurement bid firmed into the Friday close (LMT 533.24 +2.0%, RTX 177.01 +0.59%, NOC 555.58 +0.73%) with Lockheed expanding defense manufacturing capacity in Alabama - the multi-year backlog (LMT $194B, RTX $271B) and Golden Dome ($185B) unchanged. Update May 26: over the holiday the US conducted fresh "self-defense" strikes on Iranian missile launch sites and mine-laying boats near Hormuz and Trump warned he would go "Back to the Battlefront ... bigger and stronger than ever before" absent a "Great Deal" - a kinetic re-engagement and on-the-record battlefront threat that firm the multi-year procurement tail - even as a 60-day ceasefire framework emerged; the framework is unimplemented and the multi-year backlog (LMT $194B, RTX $271B) plus Golden Dome ($185B) are unchanged. Update May 27: the strikes drew an Iranian retaliation vow and ceasefire-violation accusations and President Trump floated raising the FY2027 defense budget from $1T to $1.5T - a fresh procurement-cycle support - though the Tuesday defense tape was muted (LMT 532.90 flat, RTX 178.97 +1.11%, NOC 556.80 +0.22%) and the Doha framework is a de-escalation pull, leaving the multi-year backlog (LMT $194B, RTX $271B) and Golden Dome ($185B) unchanged. Update May 28: the Wednesday cash close brought a modest defense pullback - LMT 531.14 (-0.33%), RTX 176.59 (-1.33%), NOC 551.34 (-0.98%) - profit-taking on deal-optimism flows rather than a new structural signal, with the fresh US-Iran reciprocal strikes pre-market Thursday keeping the kinetic re-engagement live; the multi-year backlog (LMT $194B, RTX $271B) plus Golden Dome ($185B) plus the $1.5T FY2027 budget proposal are unchanged. Update May 29: the Thursday cash close FIRMED the defense tape despite the peace-MoU optimism - LMT 537.33 (+1.17%), RTX 178.96 (+1.34%), NOC 559.29 (+1.44%) - the procurement bid holding on the $1.5T budget even as US and Iranian negotiators reached a tentative 60-day memorandum to extend the ceasefire; the MoU is unsigned and invalidation still requires durable peace IMPLEMENTED plus two quarters of declining DoD outlays - the opposite of a rising topline. Update June 1: the de-escalation pull collapsed - the memorandum stalled on uranium-enrichment terms while the US disabled a fifth blockade-running ship with a Hellfire missile (the blockade enforcement is itself LMT-manufactured ordnance expenditure) and the weekend brought fresh US self-defense strikes against Iran. The Friday defense tape was mixed (LMT 530.45 (-1.28%), RTX 179.66 (+0.39%), NOC 563.68 (+0.78%)) - profit-taking against the procurement bid - while the multi-year backlog (LMT $194B, RTX $271B), Golden Dome ($185B), and the $1.5T FY2027 budget proposal are unchanged. Update June 2: the diplomatic-track signal flipped twice in 24 hours. Iran formally stopped negotiations and vowed to completely block the Strait of Hormuz - structurally confirming, the kinetic tail stays live - then Trump intervened claiming an Israel-Hezbollah truce and an Iran deal "within the next week", and the defense tape sold off HARD on the peace framing: LMT 516.50 (-2.63%), RTX 174.41 (-2.92%), NOC 539.22 (-4.34%) - the sharpest single-day defense selloff of the sequence. Overnight Israel-Hezbollah clashes continued despite the truce announcement and Tuesday Trump said he "couldn't care less" whether the Iran talks collapse. The structural read is unchanged: the backlog (LMT $194B, RTX $271B), Golden Dome ($185B), and the $1.5T FY2027 budget proposal all stand, and invalidation still requires durable peace IMPLEMENTED plus two quarters of declining DoD outlays. Update June 3: after Monday's sharpest-of-sequence selloff, the Tuesday defense tape stabilized rather than cascaded - LMT 513.43 (-0.59%), RTX 174.26 (-0.09%), NOC 536.59 (-0.49%) - even as the de-escalation pull strengthened: the US-Iran memorandum is now pending Trump's signature and US-hosted Israel-Lebanon talks opened with Hezbollah signaling readiness for a full ceasefire, though clashes continued through the partial truce. The Ghalibaf "missiles, not talks" framing keeps the kinetic tail live. The structural read is untouched: the backlog (LMT $194B, RTX $271B), Golden Dome ($185B), and the $1.5T FY2027 budget proposal all stand - a pending memorandum is neither durable peace implemented nor declining outlays. Update June 4: the conflict escalated to direct strikes on Gulf states - Iran fired ballistic missiles and drones at US bases in Kuwait and Bahrain, damaging Kuwait International Airport; the US struck Iran's Qeshm Island in response - while Tehran reported "no progress" on the deal; the defense tape only drifted on the broad risk-off day (LMT -0.3%, RTX -1.0%, NOC -2.0%) and the structural rearmament case is untouched.