The headline signal — how confidence moved from the previous snapshot, and why.
vs 2.1.1+0.04 ▲
Moved from 2.1.1 0.71 ± 0.06 to 0.75 ± 0.05 - mean step of +0.04 on three named tells firing: (a) the Monday WTI/Brent follow-through confirming the Friday breakout was not a one-day repricing, (b) the Sunday Barakah attack extending the Gulf-target set to civil-nuclear infrastructure for the first time, and (c) the IEA warning of "future price spikes ahead" on its own May OMR data. Band tightens (0.06 -> 0.05) because the structural reading now has multi-session price confirmation rather than single-day tactical move plus structural-undersupply claim. Beta(21, 7) encodes ~28 effective observations - up from ~24 reflecting the three new structural additions. The 14-point Iran proposal is the partial offsetting signal but the substance is not yet public.
The thesis
The claim and where confidence stands now.
Beta(21, 7) · 95% CI [0.65–0.85]
Oil prices remain structurally elevated as long as the Strait of Hormuz reopening sequence is incomplete and Iranian retaliation risk is intact. The IEA May 2026 Oil Market Report forecasts a 1.78 mb/d 2026 supply deficit (sharp reversal from prior expected surplus), with world supply falling 3.9 mb/d in 2026 on assumed gradual Hormuz resumption from June; output from Hormuz-affected Gulf countries is 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels and the agency warns the market stays severely undersupplied through Q3 2026 even if Middle East fighting ends by early June. UBS separately expects global inventories to approach all-time lows by end-May. Friday May 15 delivered direct market repricing (WTI $106 +4.5% / weekly +11%, Brent $106.89, XLE 59.44, XOM 157.92, CVX 191.10); Saturday May 16 added structural formalization via Iran's new Persian Gulf Strait Authority and tolling mechanism (US "Freedom Project" vessels excluded). Monday May 18 morning extended the move: WTI to $107.98 (+2.43%) and Brent through $110 to $111.42 (+1.98%), with the IEA warning that "rapidly shrinking buffers amid continued disruptions may herald future price spikes ahead". The Sunday drone strike on the UAE's Barakah nuclear power plant adds civil-nuclear infrastructure to the Gulf-target surface for the first time - an institutional escalation that procedurally reinforces the chokepoint regime even as Iran delivers a 14-point peace proposal Monday. Trump's Friday Air Force One 20-year nuclear-suspension framing and possible Chinese- buyer sanction relief remain in play as offsetting diplomatic signals but face an Iran institutionalizing the chokepoint AND a Gulf-target set now extending to civil nuclear.
Drivers
The underlying macro forces this thesis expresses - the loading mean is how much each force drives the thesis, the stddev our confidence in the mapping.
Supporting evidence
Typed, citation-backed observations across time, grouped by strength. Hover a point for the claim.
What would invalidate this
The machine-evaluable conditions that would falsify the thesis.