AI capex sustained but with China decoupling tail risk

Held at 0.86 ± 0.04 (from 2.1.12). Chips led the Thursday record day - NVDA +0.78% to 214.25 and AMD +4.55% to 518.09 - positioning into the broad melt-up, not a new demand signal. The beat-and-raise (record revenue $81.6B +85% YoY, EPS $1.87, $91B current-quarter guide) plus the 25x dividend hike and $80B buyback remain the operative reads, and the China export-control tail is unchanged. Width held at 0.04. Beta(66, 10.7) ~77 effective observations.

Hyperscaler AI capex continues at elevated pace into 2026. AMD Q1 2026 (May 5 AH) materially confirmed the demand side - revenue $10.3B vs $9.88B consensus, Data Center +57% YoY at $5.8B, Q2 guide $11.2B vs $10.3B consensus, Lisa Su quoted "tens of billions" by 2027. NVDA Q1 FY2027 (May 20 5 PM ET) is the next binary tell - consensus $78.8B revenue (+77% YoY) / $1.77 EPS; Q2 guide near $86B is what the after-hours reaction rides on; options price an 8-10% implied move; prediction-market beat probability is ~97% priced in - the asymmetry is unfavorable on the upside, and NVDA has closed lower on 4 of its last 5 earnings reports despite beating revenue 3-4% for six straight quarters. Huang estimates the unrealized China market at ~$50B "effectively gone with no clear return timeline". The May 14 H200 export approval to ~10 Chinese firms (Alibaba, Tencent, ByteDance, JD.com plus Lenovo and Foxconn) holds through the weekend into Monday and through Tuesday morning - the Trump-Xi summit concluded with no AI-policy reversal or extended-export-control reinstatement. Friday May 15 delivered broad chip profit-taking on the oil shock / rate-up backdrop: NVDA 225.32 (-4.42%), AMD 424.10 (-5.69%), INTC -8% to ~$108 (after a YTD +214% run), MU -6.6%. CSCO printed a divergent +13.4% to 118.21 confirming the Wed-AH Q3 print (FY26 AI orders raised to $9B from $5B, HSBC upgrade to Buy with $137 PT). Monday close NVDA $222.32 (-1.33%), AMD $420.99 (-0.73%), QQQ $705.88; Tuesday close NVDA 220.61 (-0.77%), AMD 414.05 (-1.65%) on pre-earnings positioning, with Wednesday pre-market NQ futures +0.8% recovering ahead of the after-close print. The PHLX Semiconductor Index sits ~32% above its 50-day moving average after a +143% trailing year - a consolidation setup. The Rubin architecture H2 2026 ramp is the positive overhang investors are watching for. Update May 20: NVDA reported Q1 FY2027 after the close and the initial after-hours reaction was muted on lower-than-expected guidance - the Q2 guide, the operative variable, did not clear the priced-for-perfection bar; the demand side nonetheless stayed firm intraday with AMD 447.58 (+8.10%) on memory-supply tightness and a broad AI rally. Update May 21: the full figures correct the 2.1.6 "soft guide" read - NVDA reported record revenue of $81.6B (+85% YoY) and adjusted EPS $1.87 (+140% YoY) with current-quarter guidance of $91B, above the ~$86B Street whisper, plus a 25x dividend increase and a new $80B buyback; the stock still fell ~1% after-hours on a 45x P/E and a $5.3T cap. The named tell printed bullish for a capex-sustained thesis; the soft tape is a valuation/positioning reaction, not a demand signal. Update May 22: no new capex signal landed - NVDA closed Thursday at 219.51 (-1.77%), the beat-and-raise shrugged off into the cash close, while AMD held at 449.59 (+0.45%) on the memory-supply tailwind; the China export-control tail is unchanged. Update May 25: the AI tape split into the Friday close with no new demand signal - NVDA faded to 215.33 (-1.90%) continuing the post-earnings drift, while AMD ripped to 467.51 (+3.98%) on the memory-supply tailwind - positioning and valuation, not demand. The China export-control tail is unchanged over the quiet holiday weekend. Update May 26: no new AI demand or capex signal landed over the holiday or into the Tuesday pre-market; the beat-and-raise and the China export-control tail are unchanged. Update May 27: the first cash close brought no new demand or capex signal - AMD ripped +7.78% to 503.89 on the memory-supply tailwind while NVDA closed flat at 214.86 (-0.22%) - positioning, not demand - and the China export-control tail is unchanged. Update May 28: the Wednesday cash close brought no new AI demand or capex signal - chips faded with NVDA 212.60 (-1.05%) and AMD 495.54 (-1.66%) giving back part of Tuesday's rip - positioning rather than demand, with the China export-control tail unchanged. Update May 29: chips led the Thursday record day - NVDA 214.25 (+0.78%) and AMD 518.09 (+4.55%) - positioning into the broad melt-up rather than a new demand signal, the beat-and-raise and the China export-control tail unchanged.