AI capex sustained but with China decoupling tail risk
Equity melt-up versus building recession risk
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Fed leadership transition policy uncertainty
Gold structural debasement bid
Iran war rearmament cycle
Macro worldview (2.1.12 - Thursday May 28 pre-PCE refresh - the Wednesday May 27 cash close prints a third consecutive record (S&P 7,520.36, Nasdaq Comp 26,674.73, Dow 50,644.28) with VIX easing to 17.01, crude tumbles ~5% on Rubio "every chance to succeed" Iran-talks framing (WTI $88.68, Brent $94.29), gold sells off sharply on risk-on (spot $4,438.98, GDX -3.46%), defense pulls back modestly despite the $1.5T budget headline, and Thursday futures fade ahead of the 8:30 AM ET April PCE print)
Persistent energy premium
Stagflation risk and Fed independence stress