Held at 0.72 ± 0.06 (from 2.1.10). Still two-sided on the first post-holiday cash close: Brent +3% to $99.58 versus WTI -~3% to $93.89 captures the structural-vs-tactical split, but the energy complex this time sold off WITH WTI (XOM -3.30%, CVX -3.51%, XLE -2.76%) - a tactical de-risk on deal optimism, not a structural break. The "generally positive" Doha talks and phased Hormuz de-mining-and-reopening move further toward the durable-reopening leg, offset by the unsigned memorandum and Iran's retaliation vow; the IEA 1.78 mb/d deficit / 14.4 mb/d Hormuz-affected read and summer "red-zone" warning are intact, and no durable reopening / no sustained WTI < $80 for 30 days has printed, so the SequencedCondition is no closer. Mean and width held. Beta(20, 7.62) ~28 effective observations.

Oil prices remain structurally elevated as long as the Strait of Hormuz reopening sequence is incomplete and Iranian retaliation risk is intact. The IEA May 2026 Oil Market Report forecasts a 1.78 mb/d 2026 supply deficit, world supply falling 3.9 mb/d, Hormuz-affected Gulf output 14.4 mb/d below pre-war levels; UBS expects global inventories near all-time lows by end-May. Monday May 18 cash session settled UP on the structural read - WTI June $108.66 (+3%), Brent $112.10 (+2%), XLE 60.58 (+1.92%), XOM 160.49 (+1.63%), CVX 196.12 (+2.63%). Tuesday May 19 morning the after-hours softening EXTENDED meaningfully - WTI near $103.54 (-4.7% vs Monday close, intraday range $102.16-$103.70), Brent ~$109.33 (-2.5%). The Axios overnight reporting that the White House formally rejected Iran's 14-point proposal as "insufficient" DID NOT push oil higher - the price tape is reading the rejection as opening-of-negotiation positioning rather than imminent kinetic catalyst (Tuesday strikes already cancelled, NSC meeting is deliberation not action). Structural-supply features unchanged (IEA undersupply, 14.4 mb/d Hormuz-affected, inventories near all-time lows, Persian Gulf Strait Authority tolling regime, Sunday Barakah drone strike on UAE nuclear plant); tactical softening on the diplomatic-flow side is the operative near-term variable. Tuesday May 19 the Senate advanced a war-powers resolution 50-47 against the Iran war and Trump postponed an "an hour away" Tuesday strike after Gulf-leader appeals citing oil-infrastructure retaliation fears - the diplomatic track re-opened, not closed. Energy equities held a structural bid (XOM 162.55 +1.28%, CVX 197.25 +0.58%, XLE 61.29 +1.17%) even as crude eased into Wednesday pre-market (WTI -1.9% to $102.14, Brent -2% to $109.03) - the structural-vs-tactical split the band captures. Update May 20: the de-escalation deepened materially - WTI fell ~4% below $100 on reports of ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz and talks entering final stages, and this time the energy complex sold off WITH crude rather than holding a structural bid (XOM 156.28 -3.86%, CVX 191.33 -3.00%, XLE 59.80 -2.43%). The Hormuz-transit moves toward, but is well short of, the durable reopening the invalidation SequencedCondition requires. Update May 21: the de-escalation partially reversed - crude reclaimed $100/bbl on fading optimism over a US-Iran agreement, with the Hormuz-transit and talks-final-stages momentum stalling and the IEA structural-deficit read unchanged. Update May 22: the de-escalation re-tilted - crude eased back below $100 as a leaked "final draft" ceasefire guaranteeing Strait of Hormuz navigation revived peace optimism - though the draft is unconfirmed and unimplemented and the IEA's summer "red zone" warning leaves the structural deficit read intact. Update May 25: over the May 23-25 holiday weekend the leaked draft did NOT convert to a formal announcement - the "within hours" claim failed to materialize and weekend coverage emphasized structurally elevated crude, Brent ~85% higher YTD with calls for oil to stay high into 2027 - and Friday energy closes held a structural bid even as crude eased (XOM 154.92, CVX 191.43, XLE 59.49). Update May 26: over the holiday the US conducted fresh "self-defense" strikes near Bandar Abbas on Iranian boats laying mines in the Strait of Hormuz - reaffirming the near-term premium - even as a 60-day framework to de-mine and reopen the Strait emerged; Brent firmed +2.78% to $98.81 on the strikes while WTI fell 4.42% to $92.33 on deal optimism. The framework is the first explicit move toward the durable-Hormuz-reopening invalidation leg but is unimplemented, and Trump's battlefront threat keeps the two-sided risk live. Update May 27: the first post-holiday cash close kept the split - Brent settled +3% to $99.58 on the strikes while WTI fell ~3% to $93.89 on deal optimism - but the energy complex this time sold off WITH WTI rather than holding a structural bid (XOM 149.81 -3.30%, CVX 184.71 -3.51%, XLE 57.85 -2.76%). The "generally positive" Doha talks - ~$24B in frozen assets in play and a phased de-mining-and-reopening of Hormuz move further toward the durable-reopening leg, but the memorandum is unsigned and Iran vowed to retaliate for the strikes, so the SequencedCondition is no closer.