Hawkish Warsh regime alignment
Mapping confidence
The skill's conviction in this thesis-to-securities mapping — independent of the thesis's own confidence.
Membership and order unchanged; alignmentConfidence eases 0.73 to 0.72. 
Hawkish Warsh regime and higher-for-longer firmed on 
two hike dissents and December priced, but the duration shorts expressing it lost ground as 
the long end retraced from its 24-year high and 
TLT rose 3.3%. A regime that holds the front end while the long end eases is better expressed at the belly than in duration, so TLT eases more than IEF. The managed-futures legs hold.
Aligned securities
Ranked candidates, highest structural fit first.
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF
Alignment strength
How strongly this security participates if the thesis fully plays out.
Eased 0.85 to 0.83 with the band widened. TLT rose 3.3% to 81.49 as the thirty-year fell to 5.37% from 5.52%. Inverse-expression of a durable regime whose long-end premium has partly unwound.
- aligned security
iShares 20+ Year Treasury Bond ETF- security role
Inverse Expression- allocation direction
Short- alignment strength
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF
Alignment strength
How strongly this security participates if the thesis fully plays out.
Eased 0.73 to 0.72. IEF rose 1.7%, but December is priced for a hike, which supports the belly short more than the duration short.
- aligned security
iShares 7-10 Year Treasury Bond ETF- security role
- Inverse Expression
- allocation direction
- Short
- alignment strength
iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF
Alignment strength
How strongly this security participates if the thesis fully plays out.
Held at 0.58. Managed-futures replication should carry short-bond trend exposure; no direct evidence, so the band stays thin.
- aligned security
iMGP DBi Managed Futures Strategy ETF- security role
Alternate Vehicle- allocation direction
Long- alignment strength
KFA Mount Lucas Managed Futures ETF
Alignment strength
How strongly this security participates if the thesis fully plays out.
Held at 0.52. A second trend-following vehicle; kept at the bottom as a diversifier.
- aligned security
KFA Mount Lucas Managed Futures ETF- security role
- Alternate Vehicle
- allocation direction
- Long
- alignment strength