Thesis Alignment

Iran war rearmament alignment

Mapping confidence

The skill's conviction in this thesis-to-securities mapping — independent of the thesis's own confidence.

μ 0.8701
Beta(38.5, 5.8)

Membership and order unchanged; alignmentConfidence eases 0.88 to 0.87. Iran war rearmament cycle slowed on a pre-midterm strike pause and a supplemental still not passed, while the primes fell to lows on the October 7 yield peak and recovered most of it - trading the cost of capital more than the war's tempo. LMT holds as the most resilient name; RTX and NOC ease, NOC most after a 7% drawdown at the low.

Aligned securities

Ranked candidates, highest structural fit first.

Lockheed Martin

Alignment strength

How strongly this security participates if the thesis fully plays out.

μ 0.9001
Beta(49.7, 5.5)

Held at 0.90. LMT closed 522.23, down 0.3% on the window after a 4.7% drawdown at the October 7 low - the most resilient of the three. Primary-vehicle on the broadest missile-defense and interceptor franchise, the stocks the war consumed fastest.

aligned security
Lockheed Martin
security role
Primary Vehicle
allocation direction
Long
alignment strength
Mean
0.9
Standard Deviation
0.04
Beta Alpha
49.7
Beta Beta
5.5

RTX Corporation

Alignment strength

How strongly this security participates if the thesis fully plays out.

μ 0.8701
Beta(38.5, 5.8)

Eased 0.88 to 0.87. RTX fell 1.1% on the window and 4.4% at the low; its munitions lines are the most exposed to a supplemental that the stopgap left out.

aligned security
RTX Corporation
security role
Alternate Vehicle
allocation direction
Long
alignment strength
Mean
0.87
Standard Deviation
0.05
Beta Alpha
38.5
Beta Beta
5.8

Northrop Grumman

Alignment strength

How strongly this security participates if the thesis fully plays out.

μ 0.8301
Beta(23.1, 4.7)

Eased 0.84 to 0.83 with the band widened. NOC fell 7.0% to the October 7 low and closed 2.6% down, the weakest of the primes, and its platform programmes are the least tied to the Iran replenishment cycle.

aligned security
Northrop Grumman
security role
Alternate Vehicle
allocation direction
Long
alignment strength
Mean
0.83
Standard Deviation
0.07
Beta Alpha
23.1
Beta Beta
4.7